Polls show Democratic edge in Texas Senate race

Two of the latest polls of Texas voters indicated a close U.S. Senate race in Texas between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with Talarico running slightly ahead in both polls. A Marist poll released Wednesday found that 47% of Texas registered voters surveyed supported Talarico, while 45% chose Paxton. Meanwhile, a poll published Tuesday by the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project also showed Talarico leading with 50% of voters’ support, compared with Paxton’s 47%.

The UT/Texas Politics poll, which concluded Oct. 5, also found that Talarico received more consistent support from his party’s voters than did Paxton: Of the 861 Texas voters surveyed, 98% of Democrats said they’d vote for Talarico, while 92% of Republicans supported Paxton.

However, a Quantus Insights poll released Tuesday showed Paxton ahead by half a point at 47.2%, with Talarico at 46.7%. The Quantus poll ended Sunday and surveyed 854 people.

Why would Paxton’s Republican support be wavering? Paxton’s high-profile scandals during his time as Texas attorney general could be hurting his reputation with Republicans. In 2023, the Texas House of Representatives impeached Paxton on bribery and corruption charges, though the state Senate later acquitted him. His impeachment trial included discussions of an alleged extramarital affair. Paxton’s wife Angela also filed for divorce last year, citing biblical grounds for the decision but declining to elaborate further to the public.

Meanwhile, Talarico’s insistence that Christianity aligns with his progressive political platform—including support for transgender ideology—has made headlines during his campaign. Talarico’s home church, St. Andrew's Presbyterian Church in Austin, is LGBTQ-affirming and pro-abortion.

Dig deeper: Read Abby Young’s report on new efforts to unite the Democratic Party around a moderate platform.