Election anticipation builds in Arizona

Editor’s note: This report was updated Nov. 1.

STATE STATS

Voter makeup: More than four million people were registered to vote in Arizona as of October, according to the Arizona secretary of state’s office. More than 1.5 million were registered as Republicans, while just over 1.25 million were registered as Democrats. More than 1.4 million are not registered with any party, accounting for nearly 34 percent of the voting population. The remaining voters registered as “No Labels”, Libertarian, or Green Party members.

Voting: Any registered voter in Arizona may apply for an absentee ballot to vote by mail, and ballots are due by 7 p.m. on Election Day. They may also join an active early voting list to receive mail-in ballots automatically for every election. Voters can register online through the Arizona Department of Transportation or with a state or federal voter registration form. Proof of U.S. citizenship is required when registering to vote, and members of Native American tribes may submit tribal identification numbers as proof of citizenship. If a voter does not provide citizenship proof, he or she may still vote in federal elections, but not local or state ones.

PRESIDENTIAL

President Joe Biden beat former President Donald Trump in Arizona in 2020 by only 10,457 votes. But in 2016, Trump won the state with 49.5 percent of the vote. Arizona, with 11 electoral college votes, is considered a swing state this year.

During the March 19 presidential primary election, Biden received 89.3 percent of the vote and 72 delegates while Trump secured 43 delegates when he won 78.8 percent of the Republican vote. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley received 17.8 percent of the vote and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis garnered 1.6 percent. After Biden suspended his reelection campaign, all of Arizona’s delegates unanimously backed Vice President Kamala Harris as the party nominee.

SENATE

Arizona voters will elect one member to the U.S. Senate after incumbent Kyrsten Sinema announced that she would not seek reelection. Sinema left the Democratic Party in 2022 after being elected in 2018 and registered as an independent. Most polls show candidates Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego in close contention for the seat, making the election a toss-up between Democrats and Republicans as the parties vie for control of the Senate.

Republican candidate Kari Lake, 54, beat out two other candidates in the GOP primary. Lake worked for Fox10 Phoenix for 22 years, mostly as a news anchor, before she left the station in 2021. She ran for governor that year, branding herself as a staunch Trump ally. Katie Hobbs, then Arizona’s secretary of state, beat Lake by a slim margin in 2022. Lake has never conceded defeat and has been fighting the election results in court, saying fraud led to her loss. A three-judge panel for Arizona’s Division Two Court of Appeals in June affirmed a lower court ruling that upheld the election results.

If elected, Lake plans to prioritize securing the country’s borders, protecting water resources in western states, and improving the nation’s education system, according to her campaign website. Lake in April criticized a pro-life ruling by the Arizona Supreme Court that upheld an 1864 law protecting almost all unborn babies in the state. She says that citizens in each state should decide how to handle abortion, and she does not support a federal ban on abortion. Trump endorsed Lake’s 2022 gubernatorial bid, and he endorsed her again in her campaign for Senate.

Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, 44, took office in 2023 representing the state’s 3rd Congressional District. He previously served as a representative for the state’s 7th Congressional District from 2015-2023 and was a member of the Arizona House of Representatives from 2010-2014. He ran unopposed in this year’s Democratic primary for the vacant Senate seat. Before entering politics, Gallego served in the United States Marine Corps in Iraq. Gallego is pro-abortion and co-sponsored the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would enshrine abortion access into federal law. He also supported the Inflation Reduction Act and introduced the Universal Full-Day Kindergarten Act in Congress.

U.S. HOUSE

Of Arizona’s nine U.S. House seats, six are currently held by Republicans and three by Democrats. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting the 1st and 6th districts as part of a broader effort to overturn seats currently held by Republicans.

In Districts 1 and 3, the Democratic primaries were too close to call as of Thursday morning. The winner of the District 1 primary will face off against incumbent Republican Rep. David Schweikert, 62. Gallego vacated the District 3 seat to run for the Senate. In District 6, Democratic candidate Kirsten Engel, 62, will face off against incumbent Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani, 41, in November.

JUDICIAL ELECTIONS

Two of Arizona’s seven Supreme Court justices are up for retention election this year. Former Gov. Doug Ducey, a Republican, appointed judges Clint Bolick, 66, and Kathryn Hackett King, 44, in 2016 and 2021, respectively. Voters retained Bolick in 2018, and this will be the first time King will face voters. Both judges voted in favor of reinstating a near-total abortion ban in Arizona earlier this year. All of the justices on the state Supreme Court were appointed by Republican governors. In Arizona, Supreme Court justices serve an initial two-year term before facing voters and subsequent terms are six years.

BALLOT MEASURES

Arizona has 11 statewide measures on the ballot in November, six of which are legislatively referred constitutional amendments.

• Proposition 133 would require partisan primary elections for partisan offices and would prohibit elections where all candidates run in the same primary, regardless of political affiliation. Republican state Rep. Austin Smith sponsored the amendment and said that it would prevent the state from adopting ranked-choice voting.
• Proposition 137 aims to end term limits for Supreme Court justices and Superior Court justices.
• The Right to Abortion Initiative is likely to appear on the ballot in November and is intended to remove existing protections for unborn babies from 15 weeks of pregnancy to about 24 weeks. State law already permits abortions before 15 weeks. The initiative would also prevent the state from adopting or enforcing protections against abortion, and it would allow abortions after 24 weeks to save a woman’s life or to protect her mental or physical health.

Dig deeper:

• Read Josh Schumacher’s report about Vice President Kamala Harris’ trip to Arizona amid criticism for her record on the border.
• Read my report about why nearly 100,000 Arizonans can vote without verifying their citizenship.
• Read Leo Briceno’s article on Arizona’s citizenship laws and a federal push to enforce citizen-only voting.
• Read Christina Grube’s report about Kari Lake winning the Republican Senate primary.
• Read Catherine Gripp’s report about the contenders for Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, including Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.
• Read Josh Schumacher’s report about an Alabama man admitting to threatening Arizona election workers.
• Read Carolina Lumetta’s feature in WORLD Magazine about voting base hurdles for Trump, featuring an Arizona voter.
• Read my report about how Planned Parenthood is using funds to target elections in Arizona and six other states.
• Listen to Lindsay Mast interview Ingrid Duran from the National Right to Life Committee on the battles over Arizona’s and Florida’s pro-life laws.

Visit the WORLD Election Center 2024 to follow our state-by-state coverage between now and November.