Countdown to the first presidential debate

Just five days from the first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, polls show the race can’t get much tighter. Clinton leads in an average of national polls by a single point, and polls of major battleground states have also tightened.

Since the very first televised debate in 1960, between Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy, the debates have often marked turning points in presidential elections. Kennedy surged 5 points in the polls from the first debate to the last and won a narrow victory.

Two decades later, another telegenic candidate, then-California Gov. Ronald Reagan, went from 3 points down to 3 points ahead of President Jimmy Carter between the first debate and the last. And in 2000, the debates bolstered Texas Gov. George W. Bush from 8 points behind to neck-and-neck with Vice President Al Gore.

Trump has been closing the gap between Clinton and himself in polls in recent weeks, and he has the most to gain from a successful debate showing.

Voters know almost exactly what to expect from Clinton, a longtime politico, and she can’t do much to change people’s minds in this debate. Her hope has to be to lower voters’ opinions of Trump.

But the Republican nominee has an opportunity to surprise voters and come away with new supporters. His critics say he’s a bully—nothing but platitudes and bombast with no substance. But if he defies that mold Monday night—if he is gracious, shows a strong command of the issues, and looks presidential—he could win the debate.

Both campaigns are downplaying their preparations. Clinton last month joked about it on ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live: “I watched a lot of his debates during the primaries, and he insulted all of his opponents. … I want to take it seriously. I want to talk about what I think we can do and how important it is. But, you’ve got to be prepared for like wacky stuff that comes at you. And I am drawing on my experience in elementary school.”

Trump, meanwhile, said he’s prepping much as he did for the primary debates but wants to be careful not to over-prepare. When asked if he planned to be more or less combative than in the Republican primary debates, Trump told Fox News it’s up to Clinton.

“If she treats me with respect, I will treat her with respect,” he said. “It really depends. People ask me that question—are you going to go out there and do this and that? I really don’t know that. You’re going have to feel it out when you’re out there.”

Listen to “White House Wednesday” on the Sept. 21, 2016, episode of The World and Everything in It.