South Sudan’s peace hangs in the balance

Late in June, soldiers fought with cattle rustlers in a village in South Sudan’s restive northwest Warrap state. Eighteen soldiers and seven civilians died as the forces came under fire when trying to recover the stolen cattle from the gelweng—cattle protectors, in Dinka—a quasi-organized group of armed young men.

Warrap is one of several regions in South Sudan plagued by ethnic conflict. The near-daily attacks and killings now threaten an already fragile path to peace.

The United Nations Mission in South Sudan tracked 72 civilian deaths and 64 cases of sexual violence between Feb. 17 and April 7 in Leer County alone. As many as 40,000 people fled the region. A Juba-based civic group, CEPO, reported at least 209 deaths and 33 injuries across the nation in June.

In 2013, two years after gaining independence from Sudan, South Sudan faced a civil war fueled by fighting between troops loyal to President Salva Kiir and his rival Vice President Riek Machar. Kiir and Machar are jointly working under a fragile 2018 peace deal and preparing for elections in February. But armed groups and rustlers across the country are fracturing signs of peace as they operate without much security pushback. Kiir remains hopeful elections can still happen next year, but Machar has said the widespread insecurity makes it impossible.

Nicholas Haysom, who heads the UN Mission in the country, said intercommunal violence and armed militias that have spread across all four regions of the country account for more than 80 percent of civilian deaths this year. “The sheer magnitude of the tasks ahead requires the international community’s full and unrestricted attention,” he said.

U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price announced last week that the U.S. has withdrawn support from two peacekeeping organizations in South Sudan due to the “lack of sustained progress.” Price highlighted the ongoing absence of critical electoral legislation ahead of the elections and the lack of a unified military to better protect civilians.

Chido Mutangadura with the South Africa–based Institute for Security Studies said any peace prospects are still subject to South Sudan’s political dynamics.

“The viability of the peace agreement depends on the level of trust between the country’s leaders, which is low,” Mutangadura explained. “Kiir remains deeply suspicious of his deputy, even refusing to allow him to leave the country.”

World Radar

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