Guns and barrels

In Kyrgyzstan’s capital of Bishkek, one driver joined a long line of cars waiting for gasoline.

“Many people earn their living using their cars,” he said, speaking to Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFERL) last month. Some Bishkek gas stations closed entirely.

He fretted that ordinary people like him will struggle to meet their basic needs. “We work like donkeys,” he said.

The Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan might seem far away from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. But for drivers trying to gas up their cars here and elsewhere in the region, each conflict has made fuel more expensive—when it is available at all.

Since February, when the United States and Iran began trading blows, the global oil trade has come under severe strain. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a Middle East shipping route that sees a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil sail past its shores—have repeatedly pushed oil prices to crisis levels.

Although U.S. President Donald Trump has been negotiating with Iran—with Qatar playing a role as diplomatic mediator—to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, talks appeared to be stalling again on Monday. Reopening the strait to maritime traffic would alleviate some of the pressure global markets are facing.

In late July, analysts also estimated that Russia’s total refining capacity in operation has dropped by about a third. Ukraine’s monthslong drone campaign to strike Russian oil refineries, depots, and trucks has roiled the country’s ability to deliver supplies to foreign customers. Russia is one of the world’s largest oil suppliers.

Central Asia, parts of which used to belong to the Soviet Union, maintains trade relationships with both Russia and Iran, another large producer. Some Central Asian countries, such as Kazakhstan, also have large oil resources of their own. In sharp contrast, countries like Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan source as much as 90 percent of their fuel needs from Russia and other foreign partners.

In Crimea, the southern Ukrainian peninsula under Russian occupation since 2014, Russian vacationers have complained that the war has finally come to them. Local authorities set gasoline purchase limits as low as 20 liters per purchase, available through a voucher system.

Social media posts have used irony to vent local frustration and warn holidaymakers heading to Crimea.

“Tourists, come! … We will be glad to welcome you,” one man said. “But how you’ll leave, we don’t know.”

Similar scenes have played out across Eurasia. In a video last month, people queuing at a Russian gas station began throwing punches for control of a pump. In the same video, a police officer pulled a gun on an unruly man waiting for gasoline. Other reports from Russia’s Black Sea coast have shown citizen security groups keeping order at fueling stations. Reports of fuel scarcity, and the same long lines, have come from as far away as Mongolia. The country recently secured alternative supply deals with China and South Korea.

Some oil volumes remain available from nearby China. Yet in a condition of regional oil scarcity, countries with reserves are inclined to keep them for their own needs—or sell them at prices that developing countries like those in Central Asia can hardly afford.

Asian and former Soviet governments have responded by imposing limits on exports. Between March and early July, China restricted its fuel exports in light of the Hormuz disruptions. On July 23, Kazakhstan cut exports through a key regional pipeline after Ukrainian drones slammed into oil-bearing tanker ships on the Black Sea, another key maritime route between Europe and Asia. A week later, Russia extended a recent ban on exporting gasoline, diesel, and certain other fuel supplies through the end of January 2027.

Some of the oil market’s larger regional players have also adapted their strategies to stay in business—and even to seize opportunities the disruptions have created. On Aug. 3, Russia announced it would boost exports from its western ports to meet demand in Asia. Russia’s damaged refineries can no longer refine oil from its crude form into various fuels, forcing producers to export crude rather than refine the supplies into gasoline or other fuels.

Beyond barrels and pipelines, the stress on Central Asia’s oil markets threatens to spill over into broader society. But how much disruption is likely to show, in a region counting some of the world’s most repressive governments, remains unclear for now.

So far, Central Asia has shown few signs of protest beyond grumblings on social networks. In Russia, where even private criticism against the war is illegal, any demonstrations against fuel shocks could be perceived as “discrediting the army”—an offense that carries jail time. Central Asian countries rank among the world’s worst in terms of press freedom, according to the watchdog Reporters Without Borders.

Dr. Ariel Cohen, a Eurasia energy expert and senior fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council, is watching less for fuel disruptions than for the impact on food supply. Much of Central Asia is heavily agricultural. The region’s growers rely on diesel for tractors and gasoline for trucks—especially now, during summer and autumn harvest seasons. The global fertilizer trade has already taken a hit from the problems in Hormuz.

If a fuel crunch disturbs deliveries to grocery stores—and Central Asians begin to see empty food shelves—the crisis over fuel may give way to much larger social chaos. Reports of panic purchasing have appeared from Crimean shops.

“That is something that needs to be monitored very, very closely,” Cohen told me.

He pointed to supplies of basic foodstuffs, like bread, as a product to watch for any future upheaval. And he named Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan—where agriculture makes up about 10% and 23% of each country’s economy, respectively—as the region’s countries most vulnerable to energy shocks.

Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and Russian oil sites stop burning, ordinary Central Asians, like the man in line for fuel in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, will continue to struggle.

“Now all our money goes toward buying gasoline,” he said.