Is fertilizer in short supply?

The conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have made headlines for constricting the world’s fuel supply, but the war has also upset the agricultural industry. One-third of the world’s fertilizer supply snakes its way through the narrow channel, and with ship traffic in and out of the Persian Gulf halted since early March, fertilizer prices have skyrocketed.

How are fertilizers made? German scientists in the late 1800s discovered three chemical elements—nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium—undergird agricultural productivity. Synthetic fertilizers are man-made compounds containing these chemicals. Producers harvest the nitrogen for nitrogen-intensive fertilizers like anhydrous ammonia or urea by mixing the nitrogen from the air with hydrogen from natural gas. Phosphorus and potassium are derived from mined ores.

How did the Gulf nations get involved? Natural gas is often found with crude petroleum and is also produced during the oil refining process. The oil-producing Gulf nations realized they could use this natural gas to produce nitrogen fertilizers. They are now the single largest regional exporter of urea and ammonia. Saudi Arabia exports about a fifth of the world’s phosphate fertilizer and more than 40% of the world’s sulfur, another key fertilizer ingredient.

What does the blockade mean for the world’s food supply? Farmers who did not purchase fertilizer before the price increases might apply less to their fields, which could lower crop yields and drive up the cost of food. Sub-Saharan Africa imports roughly 90% of the fertilizer that it uses and relies heavily on Middle Eastern sources. Malawi, for instance, obtained 52% of its fertilizer from the Gulf region in 2024. Brazil, Australia, India, Sri Lanka, and other Southeast Asian nations also buy a large portion of their fertilizer from the region.

How is the disruption affecting American farmers? The United States produces about 60% of its fertilizer nutrients, but still imported about 13% of its nitrogen and 16% of its phosphate in 2025. Six in 10 of 5,700 farmers surveyed in April by the American Farm Bureau Federation reported financial difficulties as a result of spiking fertilizer and fuel costs. Farmers also reported planting less cotton, peanuts, rice, and corn in favor of crops like soybeans that don’t rely as heavily on nitrogen. Southern farmers are hit particularly hard by recent price increases since only 19% said they had prebooked their fertilizer orders for the next planting season before prices rose, compared to 67% of the Midwest farmers surveyed.

What is the Trump administration doing? USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins recently announced supplemental disaster relief for farmers and said the administration will roll out a multiagency effort to combat rising costs. It will also add potash and phosphate to the U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List to spur domestic production.

Have we seen this before? Fertilizer prices have not yet topped record 2022 highs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The watchdog group Farm Action warned that in addition to global conflict, price spikes in fertilizer markets are exacerbated by lack of competition: Four firms control more than 80% of nitrogen production in the United States, and two companies dominate over 90% of the phosphate and potash industry.