Voting with their feet

Twelve years ago, living in the foothills of El Dorado County, Calif., Joanne Kraft enjoyed what many consider the California Dream. Seeing the snow-capped Sierra Mountains in the distance never got old. She and her husband happily shuttled their four children to soccer practice, school activities, and church events.

But all was not golden in the Golden State. The Krafts watched political, economic, and social shifts with dismay. Changes in the criminal justice system especially troubled Kraft, a former 911 dispatcher. Felonies were reduced to misdemeanors, and misdemeanors became citations. People who normally would have been in jail walked free.

The Krafts eventually decided to sell their house and move more than 2,000 miles across the country.

“I never thought in a million years I’d move. But here I am,” said Kraft, a fourth-generation Californian who now sells real estate and runs the podcast Exodus California—Moving to Tennessee. “Basically, we are political refugees, and we are voting with our feet.”

Since the Krafts left California, hundreds of thousands of others have done the same. The “California exodus” isn’t new, but it’s intensified since 2020. And it’s drained the state of a key Republican voting bloc. It’s also eroding prosperity. And that, combined with the growing frustration among those who stay, could eventually undercut the political influence of America’s most populous state.

California, once the state of Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon, now boasts Democrat supermajorities—and it’s likely turning deeper blue as more conservatives leave. Some analysts argue mass waves of immigration in the 1990s, both legal and illegal, tipped the scales in Democrats’ favor. But Wayne Winegarden, a senior fellow at the Pacific Research Institute, a nonpartisan public policy organization, said domestic migration likely played a more important role.

The California exodus actually began decades ago, spurred mainly by increased taxes and housing costs. Between 2005 and 2015, census records show California lost about 800,000 working-class residents to other states—with about 20 percent of them landing in Texas.

About the same number of Californians left between 2021 and 2022 alone. Over the last three years, U-Haul has recorded more than 2 million one-way rentals in the United States and Canada, with many trucks heading to conservative strongholds such as Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and Idaho.

California’s economic environment has long been a major driver, but now social issues are also spurring increased outmigration. In interviews, former Californians expressed their concern for both problems.

“Many people can’t afford it anymore,” said Carole Barber, who recently moved out of the state with her husband. “Rick and I retired before we left, but our daughter, her husband, and their two children left California about a year before we did. She had a great job. It didn’t matter; the expense of just food and services was off the charts.”

With gas prices over $1 more at the pump in California than in Idaho, Barber wondered where the money was going.

“The gasoline tax is supposed to repair roads and bridges, but it’s being spent elsewhere. The roads in California are trashed and beaten to a pulp.”

Despite its high taxes, California has racked up $1.6 trillion in debt. Barber has lost confidence the state’s lawmakers are serving the people they represent. A recent bill making it illegal for school districts to require teachers to tell parents their child wants “gender-affirming care” confirmed they made the right decision.

“It’s unfortunate because California is a beautiful state,” Barber said. “But you cannot ram that down our throat and tell us what is good for us. We are independent thinkers and will no longer play that game.”

LIBERAL POLICIES aren’t the only thing pushing people out of California. Out-of-control wildfires also provide motivation. Fires have destroyed more than 820,000 acres and 1,000 homes this year alone.

In 2017, the Tubbs fire in Santa Rosa burned near the home of Matt and Katie Jackson and destroyed many of their friends’ houses. It prompted them to reconsider living on the Pacific Coast.

“Either the air quality was bad due to smoke, or we were being evacuated,” said Matt, a seventh grade teacher and father of four. “It was to the point that our kids gathered their belongings every time they smelled smoke.”

In October 2020, after talking with a friend in Greenville, S.C., Matt and his wife decided to fly out and look around. When they arrived, the landscape was green, people were not wearing masks, and churches were open.

“I was like, ‘Hold on!’” Jackson recalled. “People are living normal lives here.”

Less than two months later, their family and Matt’s newly retired parents caravaned across the country. Several other family members and friends have also moved within the last few years.

“Seven families from our church in Santa Rosa now attend the church we attend in Greenville,” said Jackson, who teaches one block from his new house. Even though he makes less than in California, the cost of living is reduced. They’re glad they moved when they did. Home prices in South Carolina have jumped significantly since then.

Families aren’t the only ones leaving. Companies are, too. In July, Elon Musk announced his social media platform X would abandon its San Francisco headquarters for Texas. Chevron, SpaceX, Neutrogena, McAfee, Tesla, and Kelly-Moore Paints have also recently pulled out of the state.

Politicians have been slow to respond. Winegarden said many are reluctant to lose political advantage by admitting their policies have caused serious problems that are driving people away. Others are walking a difficult line between addressing issues and living up to Democrat ideals.

In July, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced his own alternative to a November ballot initiative that would increase penalties for drug crimes and shoplifting. His proposed initiative had a narrower scope that aimed to allay constituents’ fears about returning to an era of mass incarceration. But one day after announcing it, Newsom pulled his ballot initiative due to a lack of support.

CALIFORNIA’S TRAJECTORY is taking a toll on its national political influence. The Golden State still boasts the largest delegation in Congress, but it lost a House seat for the first time in 2021 due to population decline. Election data provider Decision Desk estimates the state could lose five more seats by 2030 if the exodus continues as projected.

But Winegarden said as problems intensify, politicians will be forced to begin reversing course on damaging policies. Newsom has recently changed his approach to the homelessness crisis. Under his leadership, the state poured at least $3.2 billion into grants to local governments to address the issue. But in August, Newsom said the state would start pulling funding from cities and counties that failed to clear large homeless encampments.

“Right or left, people just are getting fed up,” Winegarden said.

Winegarden believes the ongoing exodus and increasing frustration from remaining residents will finally stir politicians to enact major changes: “Just like with the homelessness crisis, we have to let it kind of get to a point where people can stand it no longer, and then we’ll get the right policies implemented.”

Read other stories in this issue’s 2024 election package: “The abortion albatross?” and “Election Guide: Competing visions for America.”