What a contested GOP convention could look like

After his win in the Wisconsin primary Tuesday night, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, insisted he could win the Republican nomination for president, one way or another.

“I am more and more convinced that our campaign is going to earn the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination,” Cruz said in his victory speech. “Either before Cleveland or at the convention in Cleveland, together we will win a majority of the delegates and together we will beat Hillary Clinton in November.”

To clinch the nomination himself before the convention, Cruz would need to win about 90 percent of the 882 remaining delegates. But to keep Trump from getting to the magic number of 1,237, Cruz (or Ohio Gov. John Kasich, or a combination of both of them) only needs to win about 44 percent of the remaining delegates.

In every convention for the last six decades, the nominee has won a majority of delegates in advance. The convention itself has served as a political rally or coronation of sorts in which the presidential nominee was officially recognized.

Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics explained if no candidate has a majority of delegates on the first ballot, successive rounds of voting determine the nominee.

“Almost all of the Republican delegates are bound on the first ballot to the primary or caucus results in their respective states,” Kondik said. “In successive rounds, more delegates become unbound based on their own state rules, to the point where about half the delegates would no longer be bound on the second ballot. Then about 80 percent on the third ballot, so on and so forth.”

Kondik said both the Cruz and Kasich campaigns are trying to influence the selections state parties make for their convention delegates.

“They can essentially create some shadow supporters who, again, may be bound to Trump, but they’re people who would not be loyal to Trump through multiple rounds of voting,” Kondik said. At that level, Kondik added, Cruz might have an advantage over Trump, who has not focused on such detailed, grassroots efforts during his campaign.

Cruz also could get a delegate boost from Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who dropped out of the race three weeks ago. Rubio has formally asked to retain control of the delegates he won before he suspended his campaign. Normally, a lot of those delegates would be free to support other candidates before the convention. But Rubio sent letters to all the state Republican party chairs asking to keep those delegates bound to him through the first round of voting at the convention.

His spokesman said the move was more of an effort to stop Trump than to try and re-enter the race at a contested convention. Rubio only won 171 delegates. That’s 14 percent of the 1,237 needed, but it could make the difference between Trump locking down the nomination and not.

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