The GOP’s plan to snag Harry Reid’s Senate seat

The odds of the GOP retaining control of the Senate might come down to winning a seat it hasn’t held in nearly 30 years.

As Republican Senate incumbents defend their seats in nearly a dozen contentious elections across the country, Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev., a doctor and Army Reserve brigadier general, presents the only viable chance for the GOP to pick up a seat in November.

Heck set out to flip over to red the seat of retiring Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., a Senate staple since 1987. So far, Heck has edged Democratic candidate Catherine Cortez Masto in the polls since July—an anomaly in a state with a high population of Hispanic voters. President Barack Obama won handily there in 2008 and 2012.

Seven weeks out from Election Day, two races are rated as likely Democratic pickups, one in Wisconsin and one in Illinois. Four more are toss-ups, including Nevada’s open seat, an open GOP seat in Indiana, and the seats of incumbent Sens. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., and. Pat Toomey, R-Penn.

The threat of a rout has sparked heavy Republican investment in Nevada, where Heck appears in strong position to pull off an upset that seemed unthinkable only months ago.

Heck, 54, was born in New York, raised in Pennsylvania, and moved to southern Nevada in 1992. Heck started his medical career working as a volunteer firefighter, ambulance attendant, and a search-and-rescue team member. He later worked as an emergency room physician and then started his own business to provide medical training, consulting, and operational support to various agencies.

In 1991, Heck joined the U.S. Army Reserves and got called to active duty three times. His service included a deployment to Iraq, where he ran the emergency services section of a combat support hospital during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Since joining the House of Representatives in 2011, Heck has served on the House Armed Services Committee.

“Certainly, wearing the uniform provides a certain level of familiarity with the issues, and perhaps some more gravitas,” Heck told Defense One last year about his work on the committee. He did not immediately respond to a request for an interview for this report.

Heck, a Roman Catholic and married father of three, has a pro-life record during his three terms in Congress. He voted in favor of the 20-week abortion ban and establishing a permanent policy against funding abortions and health plans that cover abortions with taxpayer dollars.

But Heck is more moderate on other issues. His district starts just south of Las Vegas and stretches down into neighborhoods with large numbers of Latino and Asian immigrants. Many conservative voters in Nevada oppose any legislation that would ease immigration restrictions, yet Heck has been a strong supporter of providing a pathway to citizenship for some illegal immigrants.

“For those of us who represent districts that have a large foreign population, this is not a Mexican issue, this is not a Hispanic issue,” Heck said, according to The Washington Post. “This is an issue about a broken legal immigration system.”

Immigration will be a major factor on Election Day.

Cortez Masto wants to become the first Latina elected to the U.S. Senate and expects a high Hispanic turnout at the polls. Her most recent attack strategy, one many Democrats are using against Republican opponents, is to tether Heck to the bombastic Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

Trump’s immigration platform—building a wall at the U.S. southern border and ramping up the deportation of illegal immigrants—is not popular with Nevada’s 17 percent Hispanic population.

In 2012, more than 70 percent of Nevada Latinos voted for Obama, leaving Heck to make up a lot of ground that is rockier with Trump at the top of the Republican ticket.

Heck is a reluctant supporter of Trump, disagreeing with him on a number of issues including immigration, but has said multiple times he will support his party’s nominee.

This year’s Senate race in Nevada is on pace to be the most expensive in state history. Billionaire Republican political activists David and Charles Koch have already invested more than $6 million for Heck to defeat Cortez Masto.

“The activists are very active for this one,” said Michael Green, an associate professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Green told me he expects more outside money to start pouring into the race, especially from Democratic donors to draw out Hispanic voters.

Green added Trump could be the determining factor in this Senate race if some on-the-fence Republicans decide to stay home and Trump’s immigration stance energizes Hispanics to vote Democrat.