Rand Paul exits presidential race

Following a disappointing showing in Iowa, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., announced this morning he is dropping out of the presidential race. But he will continue campaigning—to keep his Senate seat.

“The fight is far from over,” he said. “I will continue to carry the torch for liberty in the United States Senate, and I look forward to earning the privilege to represent the people of Kentucky for another term.”

Paul’s exit is not surprising. Despite early popular support, he failed to gain traction as the GOP field expanded to more than a dozen contenders. He came in fifth in the Iowa caucuses, with 4.5 percent of votes. That still put him ahead of most of his rivals, who appear set to continue on to New Hampshire, but withdrawing early gives him more time to concentrate on his Senate race.

Candidates from both parties who did well in Iowa are carrying that momentum forward to next week’s primary.

On Tuesday, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., addressed a raucous crowd of supporters in New Hampshire, saying, “As you know, we just got in from Iowa where we astounded the world!”

Not long ago, Hillary Clinton enjoyed a double-digit lead in the polls in Iowa, but the race ended in a virtual tie Monday night, with Clinton garnering just four more county delegates than Sanders. The race was so close that six precincts had to be settled with a coin flip, and Clinton won them all. The mathematical probability of winning all six coin flips is 1in 64, or a 1.56 percent chance.

Going into New Hampshire, Sanders leads Clinton by 18 percentage points in an average of recent polls. Clinton’s firewall in southern states is holding; she’s up by nearly 30 points over Sanders in South Carolina. If those polls tighten, it will be panic time in the Clinton camp. Rep. Joe Neal, D-S.C., represents a usually solid voting block for Clinton, but he has endorsed Sanders. Neal represents the second most populous county in South Carolina. So there are storm clouds on the horizon for the Clinton camp, and her lead in the polls might get washed away.

Republican caucus winner Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is heading into New Hampshire with the wind at his back. Though Iowa accounts for just 1 percent of the delegates at this summer’s Republican National Convention, Cruz won coveted bragging rights. He gets more gravitas, media coverage, and the ability to fundraise from a position of strength. Though Iowa has not been the most reliable bellwether for the presidential nomination—Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and Ronald Reagan all lost there—it is an advantage to come out of Iowa with a win.

Stumping in New Hampshire on Tuesday, Cruz predicted a new era of Republican leadership would come out of the 2016 election.

“It took Jimmy Carter to give us Ronald Reagan,” he said. “And I am convinced that the most long-lasting legacy of Barack Obama is going to be a new generation of leaders in the Republican Party who stand and fight for liberty, who stand and fight for the Constitution, who stand and fight for the Judeo-Christian values that built this great nation.”

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., exceeded expectations in Iowa after pre-caucus polling showed him running a distant third. Instead, he grabbed 23 percent of the vote, just 5 points out of first place and only 1 point behind Trump.

In New Hampshire, polls show Trump in the lead with 34 percent, and then a virtual four-way tie for second place between Cruz, Rubio, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. The question now is whether establishment voters will fall in behind Rubio. Normally by the New Hampshire primary, establishment voters have begun to coalesce behind one candidate. This time, they can’t decide among Rubio, Bush, Kasich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Together, those candidates get 40 percent of the vote in pre-primary polls. Rubio needs to be seen as the establishment choice to have a good shot at the nomination.

Listen to White House Wednesday on The World and Everything in It.