Early exit polls show Netanyahu’s party leading Israeli vote

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Supporters of Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar! or "Straight" party, reactthe first exit poll results in Israel's general election. Associated Press / Photo by Baz Ratner

Early exit polls show Netanyahu’s party leading Israeli vote

TEL AVIV—Most of Israel’s eligible voters flocked to the polls Tuesday to determine the future of the Jewish state: Whether the government of Israel’s longest-serving prime minister would continue, or the country would take a new path. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, former Israeli military chief of staff and leader of the Yashar! party.

By 8 p.m. local time, more than 74% of eligible voters—roughly 5.4 million Israelis—had cast a ballot, according to Israel’s Central Election Committee. An estimated 67,000 Israelis living abroad flew home in recent days to cast a ballot, according to local outlet Ynet News. Israel does not permit absentee voting, making an exception only for diplomatic staff.

What do we know about the results? Exit polls from Israel’s main television news outlets appeared to show Netanyahu’s Likud Party leading Eisenkot’s Yashar! Party. The Likud Party seemed to be winning between 23-25 Knesset seats, with the Yashar! Party netting 21-23 seats. If the results continued to play out that way, Netanyahu would likely be allowed to form a coalition government.

However, Netanyahu’s chances of building a 61-seat coalition majority seemed extremely unlikely, according to the exit polls. Opposing Jewish parties won 53 seats, while supporting Jewish parties won 50, according to the exit polls. But what swung the dynamic firmly against Netanyahu was a surprising turnout of voters who cast ballots for Arab-Israeli parties, which grabbed around 17 seats, according to the exit polls. These parties are unlikely to form a coalition with Netanyahu.

If the winning prime minister candidate is unable to form a coalition government within a matter of days or weeks, Israel is expected to hold another election three months later.

Exit polls are only estimates and not the official results, which are expected for release Wednesday night.

Dig Deeper: Read my analysis of how the voting process works in Israel and a breakdown of the election.