CBO claims millions will lose insurance under “Big, Beautiful Bill”

Nearly 11 million people could lose insurance by 2034 under the huge budget bill currently under consideration in the Senate, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The office on Wednesday released a report estimating that the bill itself would cause 10.9 million people to become uninsured, while current policies would boot another 5.1 million from insurance by 2034. The report included coverage for illegal immigrants in its estimated changes.

The report came at the request of ranking members of the Senate Finance Committee, House Ways and Means Committee, and House Energy and Commerce Committee.

Which parts of the bill could affect insurance coverage, according to the report?

• The office expects proposals in Title IV of the bill related to Medicaid to cause 7.8 million people to lose insurance. The report said new work requirement rules for Medicaid and increased frequency of eligibility verification, among other factors, would contribute to the change. The report also included illegal immigrants’ potential loss of Medicaid benefits in its estimate.

• New rules for health insurance marketplaces are also expected to increase the number of uninsured people. A provision in the bill prohibits federal reimbursements for cost-sharing reductions from going to insurers who pay for abortions, save for a few exceptions. Without federal reimbursement, the report projected insurance companies would raise premiums for enrollees.

How has the White House responded to the claims? The White House on Wednesday issued fact sheets staunchly defending the legislation. The administration said the bill will deliver nearly $1.7 trillion in permanent, mandatory savings, which it characterized as the highest level of mandatory savings in history. It also criticized Congressional Budget Office forecasts predicting that the bill would lead to higher deficits, saying such forecasts were based on the false assumption that tax cuts implemented by President Donald Trump in 2017 would expire. The White House predicted that income generated from tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, and reversal of Biden-era regulations would result in a reduction of the federal deficit by more than $6 million over the next decade.

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller also took issue with the Congressional Budget Office’s assessment of the bill. In a series of social media posts Wednesday, Miller said the office was mistaken in its assessment that extending the tax cuts would increase the deficit. Miller insisted the tax cuts would have no impact on the deficit.

Dig deeper: Read Leo Briceno’s report on the most notable provisions in the bill.