Bellwether state?

Around 10 percent of eligible voters turned out for Virginia's primary races last week, but those few voters could end up having an outsized impact on politics nationwide if Republicans end up taking the state Senate this November with their new slate of strongly conservative candidates.

The House is likely to remain in control of the GOP, which holds a 59-39 edge, not counting two independents who caucus with the Republicans. In the Senate, Democrats hold 22 of 40 seats. With Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling casting tie-breaking votes, the GOP need to pick up only two seats to regain control of both houses of the General Assembly.

Even for the eight years when Republicans had outright rule of the clubby, 40-member upper chamber of Virginia's General Assembly, GOP moderates and Democrats bottled up bills favored by social and grassroots conservatives. But the Republican candidates on the current ballot have enthused social conservatives.

"Not only will the caucus have a decidedly different philosophical bent from its past leaders, the likes of Ben Loyola, Jeff Frederick, Dick Black, Bill Carrico, and Tom Garrett, among others, joining Mark Obenshain, Steve Martin, Jill Vogel and company, will create a dynamic not ever seen in Virginia history," wrote Steve Rossie, blogging on the Family Foundation's website. "The possibilities should jumpstart all ends of the conservative coalition."

Among the Republican winners in the Senate primary are some well-known and controversial social conservatives in Virginia politics, such as former Delegate Dick Black, who in 2003 sent legislative colleagues plastic fetus replicas the size of a deck of cards. Another is former Delegate Jeff Frederick, whom the Virginia GOP's ruling central committee defrocked as state party chairman in 2009, and Del. Bill Carrico of Grayson, who last year unsuccessfully sponsored bills that would open public events to voluntary prayer and exempt firearms made in Virginia and never sold outside the state from federal law.

"Oh, I was licking my chops," said Democratic Senate Majority Leader Richard L. Saslaw of Fairfax. "I told The Washington Post that night that it's over, that we'll come away from this election with 24 seats, not just 22." He characterized the Republican candidates as "totally off the charts, poster children for the far right."

On the other side, an internal memo by Dave Rexrode, executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia, notes that of the five open districts in the Senate, Gov. McDonnell won three of them in 2009 with at least 64 percent of the vote. Of 15 Republican incumbents, only three face a Democratic opponent, while 16 of the 20 Democratic incumbents will see a Republican challenger. And McDonnell won in 11 of those 16 districts in 2009, including three with a margin of at least 60-40. Rexrode added that McDonnell won in the open SD-40 district with 75 percent of the vote and the two new districts created by redistricting (SD-13 and SD-22) by at least 64 percent.

Basically, if Republicans beat back challenges to three incumbents and win three of five open seats, it only needs to knock off one Democratic incumbent to produce a 20-20 tie, two to win the Senate outright.

But are the new GOP candidates too conservative to win in November? According to the old truism, candidates must appeal to the base to win primaries but then track to the center to win in general elections. "That's not true in Virginia and it's not true nationally," said Michael Farris, chancellor of Patrick Henry College and long-time GOP insider. "People hate wafflers. They want to know what you stand for, and they want a clear choice."

Consider presidential politics of the last three decades, Farris said. Republicans who won (Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush) ran as conservatives. Those who lost (elder Bush the second time, Bob Dole, John McCain) either ran as moderates or lost the confidence of conservatives. "The idea that moderates win in presidential elections is the greatest myth in national politics," he said.

If conservatives do well in Virginia's elections this fall, that could send a strong signal to the GOP establishment about the chances of the different contenders still in the hunt for the Republican presidential nomination.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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