Bayh hopes to tip the Senate scales

After a six-year absence from the U.S. Senate, Democrat Evan Bayh hopes Hoosiers pick his name once again this November as he runs to replace Sen. Dan Coats (R-Ind.), who will not seek reelection.

Bayh’s late entry—he announced in July, after the Indiana primaries had taken place—shook the national political scene. He is poised to give a conservative state two Democratic senators and possibly hand control of the upper chamber to the other party. The vice president presides over the Senate, so if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, Democrats need only four more Senate seats to win the Senate majority.

Bayh’s opponent, Rep. Todd Young, R-Ind., easily led polls against Baron Hill, winner of the Democratic nomination, before the party replaced Hill with one of the state’s most well-known political names.

Birch Bayh, Evan’s father, served in the Senate from 1963 to 1981. The younger Bayh was governor of Indiana from 1989 to 1997 and then senator from 1999 to 2011, when he left the Senate citing frustration with the gridlock in Washington. He’s been a Fox News contributor ever since, living in Washington, D.C., but maintaining a condo in Indianapolis.

Young currently represents the south-central Indiana 9th District in the House. He is a Marine, a member of the prestigious Ways & Means Committee, and father of four.

Bayh, whose campaign did not respond to an interview request for this story, has a tremendous advantage with name recognition in the state. Indianapolis Star columnist Matt Tully wrote of his reputation: “Republicans are trying to crush in one summer a brand that Evan Bayh has spent the past 30 years building.”

As senator, Bayh voted for the partial-birth abortion ban but against a measure prohibiting government grants to organizations that performed abortions. He initially supported the Iraq war, but has since said he would change his vote knowing what he knows now. Bayh also supported an initiative by Obama in 2008 to address fatherlessness.

Republicans are trying to cast Bayh as a rubber stamp for Hillary Clinton, pointing out that he was a deciding vote on Obamacare. While serving in the Senate with Clinton, he voted with her 85 percent of the time.

The Washington Post noted Bayh is well-liked, scandal-free, and has plenty of leftover campaign cash—$10 million. An independent August poll showed Bayh 7 points ahead of Young. (Two more Democratic polls claimed leads of 21 points and 26 points.) Fifty-five percent of respondents said they had no opinion of Young, but only 35 percent said the same of Bayh.

Republican strategist and Hoosier Kevin Kellum said Donald Trump could bring new and “occasional” voters into the fold this year, which would boost Republicans like Young who are listed further down the ticket.

Hoosiers will also see another familiar name at the top of the ticket: their own governor, Mike Pence, as Trump’s running mate. The August poll found Trump with an 11-point lead in Indiana. That means the Trump-Pence ticket is far outperforming Young in his conservative state, a highly unusual phenomenon among 2016 congressional races.

“I think we’re going to see more straight-party voting and less ticket-splitting than in the past,” Kellum said. Indiana has a history of sending candidates from both parties to statewide offices in the same election.

Recent minor flaps related to his Indiana residency may be hurting Bayh. Just four years ago, Hoosiers voted out long-time Republican Sen. Richard Lugar after foes successfully painted him as having lost touch with Indiana. Meanwhile, Young is gaining significantly in the polls; Indianapolis NBC affiliate WTHR found only a 4-point spread between the candidates last week, which Young spokesman Jay Kenworthy said was within the margin of error.