Friendly persuasion

Thankfully, it is becoming better understood that our world doesn’t face an overpopulation problem. Indeed, more people now appreciate the serious threat of the exact opposite. Not enough babies are being born today in most nations to sustain a vibrant and enriching human tomorrow. This fall in the birth rate is very likely humanity’s most serious and documentable natural threat. And this population slowdown is happening faster than nearly everyone appreciates.

National leaders of all ideological stripes are deeply concerned about this fact. China moved from their infamous one-child policy in 2015 to a dramatic policy of the government covering all pregnancy expenses including prenatal check-ups and most types of assisted reproduction technology.

Many countries offer couples tax-funded subsidies and other financial incentives to have more children. These include a diverse array of nations such as Singapore, Hungary, Japan, South Korea, Sweden, Estonia, Italy, Finland, United Arab Emirates, Poland, Vietnam, and Hong Kong. Lyman Stone, a researcher who directs the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies, finds such efforts can be moderately successful, but “Truth be told, trying to boost birth rates to replacement rate purely through cash incentives is prohibitively costly.”

Others have tried to boost their country’s fertility by appealing to national allegiance. In 2014, Spies Rejser, a major Danish travel agency, made a creative but bawdy “Do It for Denmark” advertising campaign encouraging their countrymen and women to go on holiday, do what comes naturally, and give birth to lots of new Danes nine months later. A sequel campaign shifted gears to more personal motivations, entitled “Do It for Mom.” Denmark’s fertility rate is still well below replacement at 1.78.

So, what can boost our world’s lagging birth rate?

That is the question everyone who cares about a better tomorrow should be asking. Stone and his colleagues have dug into this critical question and provide some important insights. It turns out our friends and parents influence our fertility in powerful ways. Their report, Baby Nudges: How Social Influences Shape Fertility Choices, presents “resounding evidence that peers do matter for fertility.” Fertility contagion is real, for good and bad. When those around us stop having babies, so do we. When they start having babies and enjoy the experience of parenting, we are inclined to follow suit.

This research team surveyed nearly 10,000 respondents from over a dozen countries, providing “first-of-a-kind evidence” for the vitality of social circle fertility influences.

Drawing from their survey and other published academic literature, these scholars report that “across cultures, perceptions of peer support for childbearing matter a great deal.” A pro-natality mindset is positively infectious. Specifically, they explain that pro-baby friends matter, and parents matter even more:

Believing one’s friends would celebrate a new baby is associated with a 10% increase in desired number of children and a 20% increase in the likelihood of intending to have another child, while parental encouragement to have children is associated with an 11% increase in desired number of children and a 30% increase in the likelihood of intending to have another one.

As University of Virginia sociologist Brad Wilcox, who directs IFS, concludes, “The baby bust has a friendship problem.” We should all get more friends who like babies … and be such friends! But active, seriously held faith is also a positive fertility driver. “Baby Nudges” asserts,

Being in the top third of respondents in religiosity is associated with having 9% more children than other respondents, with positive effects showing up in many countries. This is also associated with desire for more kids (+15%) and a higher likelihood of intending to have another child (+12%).

Interestingly, higher fertility is “not driven by the frequency of pro-family statements from religious leaders but is more likely due to greater support and encouragement from family and other religious community members.” What is more, religious people tend to have more fertility-supportive friends, and this is true globally.

The report adds, “Thus, while religious leaders promulgating pronatal norms may not always be very effective, religious communities that choose to support young families, create role models for joyful family life, inspire higher family aspirations, and motivate communities of mutual support among members, can be very effective at encouraging family formation.” Secularism drives atomization, which drives cultural barrenness.

Also, when couples sense they have family and friends who will pitch in and help them with parenting responsibilities, this translates into becoming actual parents. Friends in the Anglo and Middle Eastern worlds are far more likely to offer such help than their Asian peers.

Humans are social creatures, and those we like and admire have an influence on us. (The report documents how well-promoted celebrity pregnancies also boost the fertility of the people who follow these celebrities.) So, across countries, we must find more ways to talk about how having children adds profound and unparalleled richness to life. After all, it is God’s first command to humanity.

God’s design leads to greater happiness. Previous IFS research consistently demonstrates that married moms and dads are markedly happier than their unmarried and childless peers. A world that forgets to have children today will be a world that ceases to exist tomorrow. It appears that the way to keep that from happening is for all of us to find and make friends who like kids—and to be such friends!