Southern Discomfort

Old soldiers never die, as the old saying goes. They just retreat to Arkansas and give up their presidential ambitions. That's the way it goes for Wesley Clark, at any rate. Five months after jumping into his first-ever political race and rocketing to the top of the national polls, the retired general finished third in Tennessee and Virginia on Feb. 10, decimating his Southern strategy and forcing him out of the race.

As Gen. Clark folded up his tattered campaign tents, John Kerry charged ahead into Wisconsin, a left-leaning state where Howard Dean has campaigned almost full-time for two weeks in a last-ditch effort to trip up the front-runner.

And John Edwards? He once thought he could win Tennessee and Virginia, two states that border his home turf in North Carolina. But Tuesday's contests proved conclusively that momentum is more important than the map in an era of front-loaded primaries with little time for face-to-face campaigning. Sen. Edwards finished second in both states, cementing his title as the primary season's perpetual No. 2-and possibly strengthening his resumé for the No. 2 job in national politics.

Half a year ago-half an eon in political time-Wesley Clark looked like the Great White Hope of the Democratic Party, a moderate, Southern, war-hero alternative to Howard Dean, the far-left front-runner at the time. But like Dr. Dean himself, the retired general proved to be a candidate not yet ready for prime time. He flip-flopped wildly on policy positions, supporting the Iraq War resolution one day, then declaring just 24 hours later that he never would have voted "for this war." Democrats looking for a Dean alternative flocked instead to Sen. Kerry, a far more seasoned politician, leaving the hapless general without a base or a compelling message.

After a skin-of-his-teeth win in Oklahoma on Feb. 3-a state where other candidates had barely bothered to compete-Gen. Clark focused his efforts on Tennessee, arguably the more conservative of Tuesday's primary states. For much of the evening he ran neck-and-neck with Sen. Edwards, his Southern rival, but his eventual third-place finish proved he had no real advantages and no hope of securing the nomination.

Initially, he tried to put the best spin on the evening. "We'll leave Tennessee even more full of hope and commitment than when we began this journey five months ago," he told supporters in a Memphis hotel. "We may have lost this battle today, but I tell you what, we're not going to lose the battle for America's future."

Within hours, however, his own future had changed. Although family members reportedly wanted him to stay in the race, party elders were pushing hard for a quick end to the primary battle, and Gen. Clark had little rationale for defying them. Instead of heading to Wisconsin, site of the next big battle, he slipped off to Arkansas to make a painful announcement.

"Today ... we have decided we're going to end this phase of this journey even more full of hope, and even more committed to building a better America," he told a hometown crowd in Little Rock. "This has been every bit as much a cause as a campaign.... It was a tremendous honor, and it was a call to duty."

Gen. Clark's withdrawal was good news for Sen. Edwards, who wants nothing more than a two-way race between himself and Sen. Kerry. Indeed, had Gen. Clark pulled out one week earlier, the Feb. 10 results might have looked far different. The combined votes for Messrs. Edwards and Clark would have been enough to defeat the front-runner in Tennessee, raising doubts about his electability in the South. But by splitting the votes of more conservative Democrats, the two Southerners handed Sen. Kerry an easy win, and a nearly insurmountable lead in the overall delegate count. (After weekend wins in Maine, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Sen. Kerry could boast one-fourth of the delegates needed to clinch the nomination.)

Indeed, although Sen. Edwards promised on election night that voters would get "a campaign ... not a coronation," his situation looks increasingly grim. To remain viable, he'll need some wins in the 14 primaries looming over the next three weeks, but only one of those contests takes place in his home region. Though his surprise second-place finish in Iowa proved he could run well outside the South, it also proved he needed plenty of face time with the voters to get his message out. With no time left for that kind of retail-level campaigning, he must try to compete with Sen. Kerry on the airwaves-not much of a contest, given the front-runner's advantages in money and momentum.

Sen. Edwards also can't compete without directly taking on Sen. Kerry in his campaign ads and stump speeches, something he's been loath to do. Some political watchers speculate that Sen. Edwards's kid-gloves approach is an effort to land the No. 2 spot on the national ticket if his bid for the top job falls short. With a slew of second-place finishes under his belt, he is a proven vote-getter who could force the Republicans to spend time and money in Southern states they would otherwise have the luxury of taking for granted.

With Sen. Edwards playing nice, the sharpest criticism of Sen. Kerry has come from Dr. Dean, but no one seems to be listening to him anymore. If a week of nonstop, left-wing attacks can bring down Sen. Kerry's numbers in Wisconsin, the race could open up again. Still, even Dean supporters admit that's a very long shot indeed.

Whatever happens in Wisconsin, Dr. Dean said he will stay in the race. Though it was, by his own admission, an "obvious contradiction" to his earlier promise to drop out if he failed to carry Wisconsin, Dr. Dean decided on Feb. 9 that his message must be heard. "The truth now appears to be that we're going to have to find a way to stay in," Dr. Dean said during a Wisconsin news conference. "If I'm so big on ordinary people, how am I going to resist all the people who are tugging at my sleeve or doing it electronically, saying, 'Don't quit'? ... They don't want to quit, and I'm not going to quit on them."

Apparently, old leftists never die, either-and they hate to fade away. As President Bush watches his poll numbers slide, Dr. Dean's quixotic quest could be the GOP's best news of this primary season. The former Vermont governor still makes good newspaper copy, which may amplify his attacks for a couple of weeks longer. Nevertheless, without a scandal or a major stumble, Sen. Kerry should easily collect the 2,162 delegates he needs by Super Tuesday, March 2, forcing even the feisty Dr. Dean to rally round the nominee.