Pressure campaigns

ON APRIL 1, top U.S. officials met with Israeli emissaries for a video call. On the Americans’ agenda for discussion: recommending alternative strategies to the Israel Defense Forces’ planned ground invasion of Rafah, a southern city in the Gaza Strip that Israel says is Hamas’ last remaining stronghold.

Amid the war in Gaza, Israel insists a military takeover of Rafah this spring is necessary to eliminate terrorists who slaughtered some 1,200 innocent Israelis and foreigners on Oct. 7. Yet the city and its environs also shelter an estimated 1 million or more Gazans who have fled there for refuge. Critics say an invasion will put civilians’ lives at risk.

With that backdrop, U.S. President Joe Biden is facing mounting political pressure from his own party and global allies to roll back support for Israel. The pressure is especially acute during an election year as Biden seeks to woo support from swing-state voters concerned over civilian bloodshed.

Recent shifts in Biden’s approach suggest he’s listening—and that’s created a rift between Israel and the United States. When the United Nations Security Council on March 25 voted in favor of a Gaza cease-fire resolution for Ramadan, the United States for the first time refrained from blocking the vote, instead allowing it to pass. That drew the ire of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who canceled a delegation visit to Washington, D.C., in protest.

The war’s death toll continues to climb. The Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry claims around 33,000 Palestinians have died so far, although its tallies are unreliable and don’t distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths.

Hanna Massad is a pastor from Gaza and founder of the U.S.-based nonprofit Christian Mission to Gaza. Most days, internet allowing, Massad talks to family and friends on the ground in Gaza. He said a single bag of flour that previously cost $8 to $10 now sells for over $270. A recent report predicted over a million people in Gaza will face severe famine in the next few months.

Massad said 18 people, including his aunt, died after an Israeli airstrike hit the grounds of Gaza City’s historic Greek Orthodox church, where they had fled for shelter. One father buried three of his children that day.

Explosives also severely damaged Gaza Baptist Church. Massad said the church’s elderly piano player was shot by a sniper after venturing out to her apartment. She bled out in the street.

Such reports of devastation and death in Gaza have grabbed the international spotlight, sparking pro-­Palestinian protests in the United States and driving a wedge within the Democratic Party. An October Gallup poll showed that, after the war broke out and Biden pledged “rock solid and unwavering” support for Israel, he lost 11 percentage points of support among American Democrats. And in U.S. primary elections, Democratic voters in various states have boycotted Biden over his handling of the war.

That has led to a shift in tone from the White House, said Michael Makovsky, CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. He said that Biden, after initially signaling staunch support for Israel, is now displaying a different “political calculus.”

In February, for example, the president sent several top aides to Dearborn, Mich., to apologize privately to Arab Americans—a key voting bloc—for his handling of the war. Although Biden affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself in his March 7 State of the Union remarks, he also warned Israel not to use aid as a “bargaining chip.” The following week, Biden praised a speech by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer calling for new elections in Israel.

Former President Donald Trump is walking a similar tightrope as he campaigns for reelection on the Republican ticket. Although Makovsky said Trump was “extremely pro-Israel” during his presidency, he added the candidate’s rhetoric lately has been “muddled.” Israeli reporters who interviewed Trump recently concluded he is “weighing his words carefully” to avoid alienating swing-state voters.

Meanwhile, looming large on the horizon is the question of what will become of Gaza after the war. Haisam Hassanein, an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said a “decisive defeat for Hamas is what’s best for Palestinians and the region as a whole, not just Israel.” But finding a path forward after that will be a thorny issue.

Makovsky said a two-state solution, which Biden has repeatedly called for, is a non-starter in Israel after the Oct. 7 atrocities: “It’s political suicide.”

For now, the Biden administration is working to smooth things over with Israel, recently authorizing the transfer of billions of dollars’ worth of arms to Israel and weighing further sales of military equipment like fighter jets and air-to-air missiles.

That’s no surprise to Hassanein, who said the two countries’ common interest in defeating terrorism will continue to be a trump card: “At the end of the day both Washington and Jerusalem will have to hash out their disagreements in private.”