Canada is Tru-done

The once-popular Canadian prime minister who began his tenure promising positive politics and “sunny ways” announced his resignation in the snow outside Rideau Cottage, his official residence, on Jan. 6. As several pages of notes blew away in the cold wind, Justin Trudeau tried to make light of the situation. “I’ll wing it,” he said. But his tone turned somber as he began his address.

“This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election,” Trudeau told a national TV audience.

Trudeau has led Canada’s Liberal Party since 2013 and served as prime minister for nearly a decade. He’s still in power until March 9, when his party will vote on his successor. But Trudeau’s Liberal replacement will lead a Canada primed to swing to the Conservatives in the next election, a realignment that could strengthen ties with the Trump administration and avert a looming trade war.

Trudeau leaves under a cloud: His approval ratings tanked to 22 percent just before his resignation, according to the “Trudeau Tracker” from Canada’s nonprofit Angus Reid Institute.

His government has weathered a long list of scandals. In 2019, Trudeau demoted Cabinet member Jody Wilson-Raybould after she reportedly denied his requests to defer prosecution of a construction company accused of corruption. A government investigation found Trudeau improperly influenced her. In 2020, Trudeau and his finance minister faced another investigation for appointing WE, a children’s charity that had previously paid several of their family members, to operate a hefty government grant program. The investigation cleared Trudeau of wrongdoing but found the finance minister broke rules by not recusing himself from the decision.

Trudeau’s aggressive handling of the 2022 Freedom Convoy trucker protests also left a black mark. He invoked the Emergencies Act to freeze the bank accounts of the protest’s organizers—and thousands of ordinary donors. A Canadian federal court later ruled Trudeau’s use of the act was both unconstitutional and unreasonable.

But Canadians turned against him after years of economic stagnation, mass immigration, housing and healthcare crises, and aggressive leftist policies on social and environmental issues. In March 2024, Canadian food banks logged more than 2 million visits—the highest number in history and a 90% increase over 2019, according to Food Banks Canada.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s Dec. 16 resignation from Trudeau’s Cabinet was the final blow for his government. Freeland had clashed with Trudeau for weeks over spending plans and quit just hours before she was due to present a fall economic update to Parliament. It included a higher-than-­expected budget deficit for 2023-24: 61.9 billion Canadian dollars ($42.9 billion).

Trudeau’s ouster is a symptom of Canadians’ dissatisfaction with the “Liberal brand,” according to Peter Copeland, deputy director of domestic policy at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, a nonpartisan Canadian think tank.

“So much of the Liberal vision is tied up in a combination of economic and social views on things—one in which if you’re just like, optimistic enough, and you’re inclusive, and pursue this vision of substantive equality or identitarian politics, everything will be fine,” Copeland said. “I think a few generations now have experienced that, and they see where it leads. It’s led to a housing affordability crisis, cost of living issues.”

Liberals are already fielding candidates for Trudeau’s replacement. Whoever they choose will likely have the shortest tenure as prime minister in Canadian history. Trudeau prorogued Parliament Jan. 6—essentially pausing it and resetting its legislative agenda—but it resumes March 24. All three opposition parties plan to call for a no-confidence vote soon after, triggering a spring election.

Copeland says the new Liberal leader could see a temporary boost in the polls just like the Democrats did when Kamala Harris took Joe Biden’s place on the presidential ballot. “But the longer-­term trend there is that [Liberals’] time is up,” he added.

The latest polls from Abacus Data/Toronto Star show the Conservative Party leading with 40 percent, while the Liberals and the New Democratic Party trail at 17 and 15 percent, respectively.

That means that the head of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, has a good chance of becoming Canada’s next long-term leader. Poilievre, who has held a seat in Parliament since 2004 and won leadership of the Conservatives in 2022, casts himself as Trudeau’s opposite. Canada’s Conservative Party is more centrist than its American counterpart, but it has moved to the right under Poilievre. “We’ll cap spending, axe taxes, reward work, build homes, uphold family, stop crime, secure borders, rearm our forces, restore our freedom, and put Canada first,” he said Jan. 6 after news of Trudeau’s resignation broke.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during a news conference in Ottawa. Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP

But if elected, Poilievre faces a potential trade war with the United States. During his 2024 campaign, President Donald Trump vowed to impose a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, unless both countries put forward tougher border security measures.

Trudeau has counter-tariffs ready to go and plans to rely on Canada’s status as the No. 1 buyer of U.S.-made goods to put pressure on Trump. Poilievre has expressed support for counter-tariffs, but said he thinks he can avert the situation by showing Trump that “our interests are aligned”—especially when it comes to border security. But Canadians may have to deal with increased pressure and prices in the meantime.

Mike Schouten, executive director of the Association for Reformed Political Action (ARPA) Canada, said change on the social issues Trudeau championed may take a while, but the current conservative shift gives Christians a more hospitable environment to put forward good policy.

“The Pierre Poilievre Conservative Party does not wake up in the morning wondering what they can do about abortion and euthanasia,” Schouten said. “But we also would expect from a conservative government that they wouldn’t be hostile towards pregnancy care centers … by threatening to take away their charitable status, for example.”

Poilievre is pro-abortion and doesn’t plan to end assisted suicide. But he has vowed to revoke Trudeau’s planned expansion of the Medical Assistance in Dying program to people whose sole condition is mental illness, calling it “a radical agenda that is totally out of step with the values of Canadians.” He also signaled support for future legislation that would ensure only biological women have access to women’s sports and restrooms.

Schouten said putting ultimate hope in human government is a mistake, but ARPA and other Christian conservative organizations are ready to get to work when Parliament resumes.

“Things can take a long time, especially when you’re trying to undo bad policy,” he said. “We need to be diligent and persistent as we continue advancing [God’s] truth into the political realm.”