Campaigns against crime

“We all see it. We all feel it. Our neighborhoods are less safe,” says Christine Drazan, a Republican candidate running for governor of Oregon. “Defunding our police and releasing violent criminals never should have happened.”

Her message is resonating with voters.

Crime is a major factor in gubernatorial races across the country this year, and not only in Oregon. In 2020, homicides in America increased by nearly 30 percent. An FBI review estimated that murders increased another 4 percent in 2021.

If Drazan wins in Oregon, it would be a major upset: The Beaver State has not elected a Republican governor since 1982. But Oregonians may be ready for a change. Outgoing Democrat Kate Brown is the least popular governor in America, and the state faces problems on multiple fronts.

Take the three R’s, for example. In grades three through eight, just 39 percent of Oregon kids are proficient in reading and writing, while only 28 percent are proficient in math. The state has the fourth-worst homelessness problem. In 2020, Portland, Oregon’s largest city, was rocked by months of Defund the Police protests and riots. The city responded by imposing deep budget cuts on the local police department. Meanwhile, Portland’s homicide rate soared 207 percent from January 2019 through June 2021. Portland area voters say they’re fed up with crime. An October Oregonian poll found 82 percent want more police.

While promoting soft-on-crime policies, Brown and Oregon’s Democrats imposed some of America’s toughest COVID-19 restrictions on ordinary citizens.

Drazan’s opponent, Democrat Tina Kotek—the former speaker of Oregon’s House of Representatives—represents more of the same. In June 2020, she sent a letter to the Portland police criticizing them for using tear gas on protesters who attempted to burn down a police union building. She also sponsored a bill to protect the right of homeless people to camp in public spaces, a measure critics argued would bring Portland’s homeless encampments to the rest of Oregon. During the pandemic, she voted against Republican-led efforts to reopen schools.

The wild card in the governor’s race is Betsy Johnson, a former Democrat running as an independent. Johnson will undoubtedly pull some votes from Kotek. However, her criticism of Kotek’s extreme-left policies might also appeal to would-be Drazan voters.

Drazan, a former minority leader in Oregon’s House, is pro-life but has promised to uphold the state’s existing abortion law. A mid-October polling average showed her with a slight lead over Kotek.

Georgia

The cry to “Defund the Police” has also become a liability in Georgia’s governor’s race. Democrat Stacey Abrams is fielding claims that she’s soft on crime while facing off against Republican incumbent Brian Kemp for the second time. (She lost to him in 2018 and famously denied the election results.) Kemp’s campaign released a series of TV ads in June that showed Abrams saying “yes” to defunding the police. The clip didn’t include the rest of her remarks, which explained she would do so if forced to choose between funding police and other community programs. But Kemp has a point: Abrams serves in top positions in two organizations that supported Defund the Police activists.

New York

Republican Lee Zeldin’s gubernatorial campaign has centered on rising crime rates, an issue that became unexpectedly personal for him in July when a man attempted to stab him during a campaign event. In October, a shooting took place outside his Long Island home while his teenage daughters were inside. Zeldin promises to roll back legislation like bail reform, which he argues lets dangerous criminals loose. He also plans to fire Manhattan’s progressive district attorney, Alvin Bragg. Zeldin is running against incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul, who became governor last year when Andrew Cuomo resigned. Polls still show Hochul in the lead, but Zeldin has closed the gap significantly in recent months.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, Republican Tim Michels is trying to unseat incumbent Democrat Tony Evers. A recent poll found 85 percent of registered voters in Wisconsin are somewhat or very concerned about crime. Michels is speaking to their fears. During an Oct. 14 debate, Michels said, “Crime is running rampant. Crime went down in America from 30 years ago until two years ago, but in the last two years there has been a tremendous spike.” He has touted his endorsements from multiple police associations. Evers leveled harsh ­criticism at police in 2020, though he opposed defunding. During his first campaign in 2018, he promised to work toward cutting Wisconsin’s prison population in half. A mid-October polling average showed Michels running even with Evers.

Across several states, many voters have made it clear they want officials who are tough on crime. Time will tell if those voters turn out at the polls.