A dose of reality

Mark Zuckerberg announced the ­biggest redirection in his massive tech empire’s history via video, while his blandly smiling avatar stared out from a screen behind him. Zuckerberg had discovered tech’s next frontier, he said, a revelation that prompted him to rename his company “Meta” and refocus its priority on developing the virtual reality “metaverse.” He said this new direction would be all about “the most important experience of all—connecting with people.”

That was just over three years ago. Other big names, like Sony and Apple, followed Meta’s lead, developing their own VR goggles and programs. Microsoft spent $150 million just on patents for VR apps.

Tech giants bet big on people wanting to enter and interact in a fake world. But now the hype has fizzled—and VR headsets are still a niche product. An ARtillery Intelligence/Thrive Analytics study of over 52,000 American adults found that, for two years running, only 25% had ever owned or used a VR headset. The rest weren’t even interested in trying one. Though VR is popular with gamers, they don’t make up a big enough segment of consumers to sustain the industry.

Now, tech companies are moving away from VR. In 2024, Apple sharply scaled back production of its headsets in response to falling sales, while Microsoft discontinued its HoloLens headsets altogether after losing billions of dollars. Sony and ByteDance also struggled with declining sales, according to International Data Corp. (IDC) trackers.

“There was so much hype, and there was so much money involved,” said Zeeshan Ajmal, a research assistant at Finland’s University of Oulu who studies quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and virtual reality. “But now I think the bubble has burst.”

Meta is doing slightly better than its competitors. The company captured about 70% of the VR headset market share in the third quarter of 2024, according to the IDC report—though research firms disagreed on whether the company experienced any sales growth.

An improved mixed-reality feature on Meta’s Quest 3 headset, called “passthrough,” is likely responsible for the boost. The Quest 3 has been out for about a year but just recently gained traction as more potential buyers learned about its upgrades. Passthrough mode uses Quest 3’s front cameras to display users’ real-world surroundings alongside VR graphics—helping mitigate the feelings of isolation and disorientation that most headset users experience.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks about Quest 3 during the tech giant’s Connect developer conference in Menlo Park, Calif. Associated Press / Photo by Godofredo A. Vásquez

One Reddit user who goes by the name ­“riderxc” stopped using VR games after accidentally punching a wall during a boxing game, but came back because of Quest 3’s passthrough ­feature: “I can … see my surroundings. I can see my wife.”

But even with the Quest 3 advantage, Meta is hurting. Though Zuckerberg continues pouring money and development into the metaverse, announcing 600 new apps for it last year, Meta has lost over $50 billion on the project since 2019. The company stopped production of Quest Pro, its priciest VR headset, in 2023, and then canceled development of a higher-end mixed-reality headset in 2024.

The high cost of VR headsets is partially responsible for consumers’ reluctance to buy them. Apple’s Vision Pro costs $3,499. The Quest 3 is much cheaper at $499, but that’s still a lot to pay for a device that frequently makes users nauseous and disoriented. And the metaverse currently includes hundreds of separate games and virtual spaces that are often buggy and don’t integrate with one another, so it’s no surprise sales are flagging.

But Jason Thacker, director of the research institute at the Southern Baptist Convention’s Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, said there’s also a deeper reason most people find the virtual world unappealing. It runs counter to the way God designed human nature. “We’re embodied, integrated beings, and our bodies matter,” he said. Improved passthrough can only go so far.

Thacker said mixed-reality technology that shows users both the real and virtual worlds is probably more in line with human nature. For example, a video call with 3-D avatars could offer “great missional opportunities to reach people that you’ve never been able to spend time with in a more embodied way,” he said. “It’s better than a Zoom call, for example.”

What’s next for VR technology? Ajmal expects big VR goggles to disappear in the next few years, replaced by less-obtrusive, AI-powered augmented reality glasses. But he said VR still has plenty of potential beyond the mass market or the small gaming and entertainment sector—for instance, in the medical field. Immersive virtual simulations could help people learn how to give CPR and use an emergency defibrillator, or help medical students train for procedures.

“If we can use VR technology for initial diagnosis, which will help to reduce the workload from the health professionals, it will be very helpful,” Ajmal said.

But Thacker cautions against seeing either VR or mixed-reality as a replacement for reality. He said Christians should think carefully about whether to integrate simulations into their daily lives. “These things aren’t neutral … they’re shaping us, they’re forming us, they’re pushing certain values on us.”