Will Republicans retain control of the Senate?

UPDATE: Republicans have claimed close Senate races in Pennsylvania and Missouri to ensure the party will retain at worst a 52-48 majority in the next Congress.

Well after 1 a.m. EST, the Associated Press called Pennsylvania for incumbent Sen. Pat Toomey, who led Democrat Katie McGinty by 1.5 percent with almost 99 percent of precincts reporting. Toomey likely will finish slightly ahead of GOP nominee Donald Trump after running a moderate campaign and separating himself from the presidential contender.

In Missouri, Secretary of State Jason Kander conceded to incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt, who led by almost 5 points with about 90 percent of the votes counted.

“Congratulations to Sen. Blunt on his re-election,” Kander tweeted. “And thank you to all of my supporters.”

Kander, 35, ran a strong race, but Blunt benefited from Trump’s blowout win over Hillary Clinton in the state.

Only one close Senate race remains on the board: In New Hampshire, with 88 percent of precincts reporting, Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan was leading Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte by 1,011 votes.

UPDATE (11/08/16, 11:45 p.m.): Incumbent Senate Republicans in North Carolina and Wisconsin have pulled off big wins, dealing a major blow to Democratic hopes of taking control of the U.S. Senate.

The Associated Press has called both of the Senate races: North Carolina for two-term Sen. Richard Burr against former state legislator Deborah Ross, and Wisconsin for Sen. Ron Johnson—a major upset against former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.

“Congratulations to my friend @RonJohnsonWI!” tweeted Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. “Commonsense Wisconsin values prevailed in this race, and we’re proud to have your leadership.”

Johnson, chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, trailed in 29 out of 30 polls in the RealClearPolitics tracker, but his campaign always maintained it would close strong. With roughly two-thirds of precincts reporting, Johnson held a lead of more than 6 points against Feingold, the man Johnson unseated in 2010.

Democrats weren’t expected to compete in North Carolina after they failed to land a top-tier recruit to run against Burr, the Senate Intelligence Committee chairman. But Ross, a former American Civil Liberties Union attorney, proved to be a prolific fundraiser and ran a strong campaign.

Both Johnson and Burr supported Trump but largely avoided the controversies that embroiled some Senate candidates.

The two wins all but seal off the Democrats’ path to secure an outright Senate majority. Democrats would need to sweep all four of the remaining tossup races to ensure a 50-50 split. Republicans are currently leading in two of them (New Hampshire and Missouri), while Democrats lead in two others (Pennsylvania and Nevada).

Election forecaster Nate Silver estimates the GOP has an 82 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., once thought to be in danger of losing his seat, easily won reelection for a sixth term.

UPDATE (11/08/16, 10 p.m.): At least one (former) 2016 Republican presidential candidate will give a victory speech tonight. The Associated Press has called the U.S. Senate race in Florida for Sen. Marco Rubio, who in June decided to run for reelection after dropping out of the GOP presidential primary.

Rubio’s victory over Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy prevents what many thought earlier this year would be a lost seat for Republicans. He did it by outpacing GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, who did not benefit from some of the outside groups that supported Rubio, such as the fiscally conservative Americans for Prosperity (AFP).

“We reached out to over four million Floridians in efforts to expose Patrick Murphy’s embellished record, lack of accomplishments, and support for costly healthcare, energy, and tax policies,” boasted AFP-Florida director Chris Hudson.

Florida was the first of two tossup Senate races to fall for Republicans: In Indiana, Rep. Todd Young defeated former Sen. Evan Bayh, capping off a big comeback.

In Illinois, Rep. Tammy Duckworth defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Mark Kirk to give Democrats their first pickup of the night.

Young and Duckworth are Iraq War veterans, joining Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., who was previously the only one in the U.S. Senate.

Democrats would need to win four of the remaining six tossup races to win an outright Senate majority.

“Republicans’ chances of winning the Senate are up to 69% in our model, after Indiana and Florida calls for GOP,” tweeted statistical guru Nate Silver.

OUR EARLIER REPORT (11/08/16, 10:48 a.m.): Both parties are claiming a slight edge in the neck-and-neck battle for control of the U.S. Senate, as voters head to the polls today to decide 34 Senate races scattered across the country.

“We are going to keep the majority,” Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., a vice chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told Politico. “I don’t think the presidential race will be a major factor.”

Democrats, meanwhile, are increasingly bullish that Hillary Clinton’s slim lead in national presidential race polling and robust early voting turnout among Hispanics in Nevada and Florida will deliver control of the Senate.

Party leaders aren’t the only ones who disagree on which side has the inside track as Election Day arrives. Statistical guru Nate Silver projects Republicans have a 54.6 percent chance of retaining the Senate, while experts at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics predict Democrats will seize de facto control with projected Vice President Tim Kaine casting tie-breaking votes in a chamber split 50-50. Forecasters at the New York Times’ Upshot favor Democrats’ chances, 56-44.

Bottom line: No one knows.

The Senate prospects for each party have often fluctuated with the fortunes of their presidential standard-bearers, Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who have taken turns absorbing blows to their campaigns. Most recently, the FBI’s late-October announcement that it was examining new emails related to Clinton’s private email server seemed to breathe new life into GOP efforts to retain the Senate. But on Sunday, FBI director James Comey said the documents revealed nothing new.

A RealClearPolitics average of recent polls show Democrats poised to pick up three seats: Illinois, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If those numbers hold, Republicans would end up with a 51-49 majority, but averages often don’t account for late momentum shifts—in a year when races have seesawed between candidates in several states.

In Pennsylvania, Democrat Katie McGinty appears to be one of those candidates gaining momentum in her race against incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey. The two traded leads in a series of polls from August to mid-October, but McGinty has opened up a 2-point average lead after leading 10 straight polls in late October.

McGinty’s odds received a boost Monday, when Philadelphia transit workers agreed to end a week-long strike, meaning more voters would reach the polls in the Democratic stronghold. Toomey’s closing argument involves touting praise from President Barack Obama over his support for gun-control legislation, but the president blasted him for “trying to have it both ways.”

In Missouri, Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander is closing strong against incumbent Republican Sen. Roy Blunt, who is clinging to a 1.3-point average lead of recent polls—almost all of which are within the margin of error.

With the House likely safe, Republicans are focusing their resources on the Senate: In the last two weeks alone, the Senate Conservatives Fund has flooded key races with a staggering $37 million.

If the GOP manages to retain its majority, Indiana Rep. Todd Young likely will be a big reason why. Former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, once floated as Obama’s potential vice president, in mid July announced a run for his old seat and promptly opened a lead of more than 20 points. But a string of stories about his residency, office spending as senator, and cozy relationship with a future employer have dogged his campaign and handed Young a 5-point lead, according to the most recent poll.

Races in New Hampshire and North Carolina also are going down to the wire.

Many view the tossup Senate as a win for Republicans, who are defending 24 of the 34 seats up for grabs today—including seven in states Obama won twice. Earlier in the cycle Democrats had hoped to secure a 54- or 55-seat majority.

Now Democrats are simply hoping for any kind of majority, which could be short-lived, especially if Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine becomes vice president. Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe would pick a Democrat to replace him, but a special election would take place in November 2017 to finish his term. Republicans already are trying to recruit former presidential candidate Carly Fiorina to run for the seat.

In 2018, Democrats will defend 25 of 33 seats up for election, including five in red states and four in swing states.

“Mitch McConnell could be looking at a supermajority,” GOP operative Scott Jennings told Politico.