Will ISIS help Republicans take the Senate?

WASHINGTON—In a weekend interview with 60 Minutes, President Barack Obama acknowledged the United States underestimated the threat ISIS—the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria—posed to the world. The president’s party may also have underestimated the role of ISIS in the midterm elections.

Polls show terrorism has rocketed into second place behind the economy as issues about which Americans are most concerned. That spells more trouble for Democrats, whom voters generally trust less on foreign policy and national security issues.

But as the nation last week marked the 20th anniversary of the Contract with America—which led to a landslide election in 1994—it was a reminder of what today’s Republicans are not. The GOP has largely failed to articulate a clear legislative agenda should it take control of both houses of Congress, turning most races into local campaigns—to the benefit of Democrats who are trying to distance themselves from an unpopular president.

Five weeks remain before Election Day, and 10 U.S. Senate races remain tossups. Here’s a roundup of recent developments in races across the country:

Louisiana

Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy is holding a steady lead in a potential head-to-head matchup with three-term Sen. Mary Landrieu, but since Louisiana doesn’t have a primary system, they won’t be running head-to-head on Nov. 4. Tea party favorite Rob Maness is polling around 10 percent, making it unlikely any candidate will take the 50 percent necessary to avoid a runoff.

I caught up with Family Research Council President Tony Perkins, who ran against Landrieu in 2002, at the Values Voter Summit over the weekend, and he said not to underestimate the “politically astute” Landrieu family. Mary Landrieu’s brother, Mitch, is mayor of New Orleans, and the family’s political machine has helped Landrieu remain the last Democrat elected to statewide office.

Perkins predicted Landrieu will find a way to keep her seat again if Republicans choose the less conservative Cassidy over Maness: “You don’t beat a liberal with a moderate. … If Republicans want to capture that seat, it needs to be a conservative.”

Polling shows Maness tied with Landrieu in a potential head-to-head contest.

Iowa

Although some polls still show the U.S. Senate race in Iowa deadlocked, a new one now finds Republican Joni Ernst with a six-point lead. The Des Moines Register's survey of likely voters revealed Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley, who has represented the northeast part of the state since 2007, is barely treading water in his own district.

The findings came ahead of a weekend debate between Ernst and Braley that repeatedly highlighted their big policy differences: Braley helped pass Obamacare and wants to keep it, while Ernst wants to repeal and replace; Braley wants an increased federal minimum wage, Ernst wants the states to decide; Braley is pro-abortion, Ernst is pro-life.

Kentucky

Negative ads are up this year, but Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is running one of the cycle’s best positive ads in Kentucky. Outside groups, which are on pace to spend almost $20 million to support McConnell, are supplying much of the negative campaigning against challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes.

After initially looking like more of a tossup, the latest polls show McConnell pulling away from Grimes with an average polling lead of more than five points. The Grimes campaign insists the race is closer.

Kansas

Deep-red Kansas features the most unlikely of competitive Senate races, but former Democrat Greg Orman is facing increasing scrutiny as he tries to oust long-time Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Orman, who only announced his candidacy in June, is running as an independent and says he likely will caucus with whichever party wins the majority.

But Orman is pro-abortion, supports same-sex marriage, and has donated to liberal Minnesota Sen. Al Franken and Barack Obama’s first presidential campaign, opening himself to Republican accusations that he’s trying to fool a conservative state into voting for him. “Let’s be honest—he’s a Democrat,” said Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in an appearance for Roberts last week. “He walks like a duck and he quacks like a duck and he is a duck.”

Democrats have so far done little to help Orman, even though he holds a steady lead in most polls.

North Carolina

Spoiler alert. Support for a third-party candidate could determine who takes the tight Senate race in North Carolina. Incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, holds a modest lead over Republican Thom Tillis in the polls, but both are languishing below 50 percent because libertarian Sean Haugh is claiming a critical 7 percent.

For those North Carolinians who are still undecided, legendary NASCAR driver Richard Petty has jumped in the fray: He’s backing Tillis.

New Hampshire

According to a new Daily Caller report, municipalities in Maine and New Hampshire have placed liens on 21 properties owned by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and her husband, Bill. Shaheen, 67, has not commented on the report, but it won’t help her reelection battle with former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who is averaging a four-point deficit in polls.

Florida

Florida doesn’t have a Senate race this cycle, but former Gov. Jeb Bush has recruited the state’s donors to help Republicans take control of the chamber. Last week Bush, who is contemplating a run for the White House, brought Republicans Joni Ernst of Iowa, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Cory Gardner of Colorado, and Monica Wehby of Oregon to Florida for a fundraiser that netted more than $750,000 (the goal was $500,000). Alaska’s U.S. Senate candidate, Dan Sullivan, wasn’t present but also benefited.