Will base closures in Europe leave the U.S. vulnerable?

The Pentagon last week announced plans to further consolidate United States forces based in Europe. The realignment will result in the closure of major U.S. Air Force bases in the United Kingdom and the Azores, with the reduction of thousands of military and civilian personnel. The changes eventually are expected to save about $500 million a year.

But the planned closures are only the most recent in a long, gradual pull-back of the U.S. presence in Europe, from a peak of 400,000 troops at the height of the Cold War in the 1980s to about 67,000 today. In the early 1990s, the Air Force had 800 aircraft based in Europe. Last year, it had 130 fighter jets, 12 refueling tankers, and 30 cargo aircraft. The U.S. Navy no longer has a carrier group permanently stationed in the Mediterranean.

In the latest round of restructuring, the United States will remove military and civilian positions from 15 bases, returning the facilities to their host nations. The largest base to close will be RAF Mildenhall in the eastern U.K., with the loss of 3,200 positions. But the reduction will be offset somewhat by the addition of 1,200 staff at RAF Lakenheath, which will be the eventual European base for the new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

“The USAF contributes significantly to the local economy, so the expansion of RAF Lakenheath … is very welcome,” James Waters, leader of the Forest Heath District Council, told the BBC. “But this happiness is obviously tempered by our sadness that Mildenhall is to close.”

The United States cuts could have a deep economic impact on the host nations, since they likely will trigger local job cuts, including workers who support base operations, maintenance, and other services. The economic contributions to local European economies from decades of a permanent U.S. military presence has been one of the major reasons troops have not only been tolerated, but welcomed.

Portuguese officials have, for a number of years, opposed U.S. plans to reduce military, civilian, and contract personnel at Lajes air base in the Azores. Two years ago, then Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta agreed to reassess the reductions, but the recent announcement finalizes the plan to cut about 500 military personnel from the base.

Even RAF Alconbury and RAF Molesworth, two tiny Air Force communication stations in the U.K. used for collecting intelligence during the Cold War, which are due to be closed, contribute more than $60 million a year to the local economy.

Although the Pentagon has stated that the consolidation will not affect America’s ability to respond to its European partners—that a program of rotating forces in and out of Europe for training and exercises can replace permanent basing—some defense experts believe such a strategy will reduce U.S. ability to support European allies and protect American interests.

“This is dangerous, shortsighted, and based on the false assumption that the U.S. can project the same degree of power with rotational forces as it currently does with troops permanently based in Europe,” noted defense analyst Luke Coffey in a Heritage Foundation report. “The U.S. can project power and react to the unexpected because of its forward-based military capabilities in Europe. Reducing these capabilities will only weaken America on the world stage.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.