Upset

BOSTON-Republican Scott Brown, a Massachusetts state senator who almost no one had heard of three weeks ago, won the bitter contest for the U.S. Senate seat of the late Edward Kennedy in Massachusetts, the first Republican elected to one of the state's Senate seats since 1972.

Networks held off calling what many thought would be a closer race, but at 9:05 p.m., with over half the state's precincts counted and Brown leading Democrat Martha Coakley 53 percent to 46 percent, pollster Steve Lombardo declared on Pollster.com, "This is beyond over." Tufts University political scientist Richard Eichenberg concluded, "No runoff . . . one winner." At 9:18 p.m., The Boston Globe reported that Coakley, the state's attorney general, had called Brown to concede.

The defeat of Coakley, the overwhelming favorite in the race, has shaken the Democratic Party nationally and has massive implications for the future of President Obama's agenda. Coakley watched her December lead of 30 points evaporate in just over a month, aided by voter anger toward Washington and abetted by her lackluster campaign.

Despite snow pouring down in Boston and elsewhere in the state, voter turnout was high. So was voter interest in this election, with an invasion of national reporters, political stars, outside groups, and millions of dollars in advertising. Democratic voters, it appears, were not energized to hit the polling places, a trend that began with the Virginia and New Jersey governors' races in November.

"The raw hope is not the way it was," said Democrat Sandy Coy of Wayland, Mass. She worked on President Obama's 2008 campaign and then volunteered for Coakley. She said the Coakley camp "took a break" in December and then Brown "came out of nowhere."

Coy added, "When I first heard he was running, I thought it was laughable. But now. . . ."

Few paid Brown any attention when he won the GOP primary in December; all eyes turned instead to the Democratic primary, where Coakley battled for the nomination that most assumed would easily turn into a victory in January.

"Whatever the usual insiders and experts have to say about this election, I say this: Never underestimate the independent spirit of Massachusetts," Brown said after winning the GOP primary. "They say I'm the long shot, and if the same old powers-that-be get to decide this election, I guess that's right. But I'm betting that a new day is coming in Massachusetts."

Brown broadly won independents, which make up a majority of the electorate in Massachusetts.

Coakley as a candidate was not a rabble-rouser-she remained an attorney and a government official. She was a bit stiff in delivering speeches, usually with notes, sometimes pausing at the wrong moments. But her supporters, like Coy, said that her stiffness is outweighed by her competence-she was popular as attorney general. "I don't care if a person is someone I want to cuddle up with at night," Coy said.

Brown, also a former practicing attorney, is handsome, serves in the National Guard, drives a truck, and has more immediate popular appeal. He spent time talking to people on the streets, remembering names, speaking on his feet, usually without notes. Perhaps more importantly, he distanced himself from national political figures, though former New York mayor and Republican presidential hopeful Rudolph Giuliani campaigned for him.

On Tuesday, Brown, who was up in most pre-election polls, kept a leisurely schedule, arriving in the afternoon to the hotel where an election night party was planned. Meanwhile, Coakley made a half-dozen public stops throughout the day, mainly in Boston, seeking to push liberal voters to the polls. At her last stop, the Boston Public Library, only about a dozen supporters greeted her.

With Brown in the Senate, Republicans have 41 votes, enough to filibuster and halt a final healthcare reform bill. Democrats are already discussing how they will move forward with the legislation without their 60-seat supermajority, including the option of the House moving ahead to pass the Senate's healthcare bill instead of both chambers passing a compromise plan. That wouldn't require another vote in the Senate, circumventing the filibuster possibility that Brown has created.

Even if healthcare moves forward, the new Republican power in the Senate threatens each of the president's legislative priorities, like cap-and-trade. The race also reflects poorly on Obama's appeal: He campaigned in races in New Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts, where all three Democratic candidates lost.

And with congressional elections approaching in 10 months, the voter backlash toward Democrats in Massachusetts has conservative in the party concerned about their survival. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, a Blue Dog Democrat, acknowledged the national discontent in comments to reporters on Tuesday: "I don't need the Massachusetts race to tell me the psyche of the American people. I just need to go to the grocery store."