Trump improves in new WORLD survey

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Evangelical insiders are split over support of the Republican presidential nominee

Donald Trump speaking at a campaign event in Tampa, Fla., Wednesday. Associated Press/Photo by Loren Elliott/The Tampa Bay Times

WASHINGTON—Only 22 percent of respondents in WORLD’s evangelical insiders survey said they backed Donald Trump in the days after he locked up the Republican nomination for president in May—but 48 percent said they would consider him if he vowed to nominate a pro-life Supreme Court justice.

It looks like they meant it.

Now that Trump has released a pro-life Supreme Court short list, 44 percent of respondents in WORLD’s latest survey say they plan to vote for the billionaire businessman in November. The showing is by far Trump’s best out of 11 surveys, although 48 percent say they still plan to write in a name or not vote at all.

The findings are part of a regular survey of 103 evangelical leaders and influencers that WORLD began in July 2015. Seventy-three participated this month. The results are not scientific or representative of all evangelicals but provide a glimpse into how some are leaning in the 2016 presidential race.

Participant Samuel Rodriguez, president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, said releasing a strong Supreme Court list is the best move Trump has made to date.

“It makes a ginormous difference,” said Rodriguez, who has advised the Trump campaign but does not plan to endorse a candidate. “If Donald Trump wins, he would have to look back and credit that day for mobilizing evangelicals. That’s what changed the tide in many evangelical hearts.”

Although the new survey brings improvement for Trump, it also reveals he’s on shaky ground with many of his influential evangelical supporters. Seventy-four percent of those who said they would vote for him indicated he could easily or possibly lose their support, while almost 84 percent of those who say they’re not voting for Trump said he has no chance to earn their vote.

Nearly 33 percent indicated Trump’s selection of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate made them more likely to vote for the real estate mogul. In May, some 39 percent of respondents said the vice presidential pick could sway their vote, but no one named Pence as their first choice.

Survey participant Janet Parshall attributed Trump’s improvement to the increasingly stark choice between him and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

“Voters are starting to recognize strong leadership as a mandate for this country at this time,” said Parshall, an author and nationally syndicated radio host. “Hillary Clinton’s tattered record of ‘pay for play’ [foreign policy] and missing emails continues to call into account her judgment to lead.”

Allegations that Clinton used her tenure as secretary of state to grant special favors to Clinton Foundations donors have proliferated in recent weeks, but she too received increased support from survey participants this month: 7 percent, up from 1 percent in May. And 75 percent of respondents predicted Clinton would win the presidency

Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., a leading Trump critic who is not running for president, received the most votes (8 percent) among the 40 percent of survey participants who plan to write in a name. Seven percent plan to write in Evan McMullin, a former Capitol Hill staffer who launched an independent presidential bid this month.

“I have great respect for those that are willing to vote according to their conscience,” Rodriguez said. “This is the most difficult election, arguably, in American history.”

Parshall believes Trump holdouts have a lack of knowledge about the American political system.

“Write-in votes may make the voter feel good on Election Day, but I strongly suspect those people will have voter’s remorse when they start seeing some of the most horrifically liberal justices sitting on the high court, impacting the future of both their children and their grandchildren,” she said. “These are the days that require us to think critically as well as biblically.”

The top election year issues of concern remained mostly unchanged from recent surveys. Roughly 60 percent of respondents named abortion, domestic religious liberty, and Supreme Court nominations as the biggest drivers behind their votes. A combined 38 percent selected national security/terrorism and foreign policy.