The shock heard round the world

Europeans woke up to the 27th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall (Nov. 9, 1989) and found instead a landslide on the other side of the Atlantic. The U.S. presidential race going to Donald Trump “was a huge surprise,” said Andreas Thonhauser of ADF International, speaking from Vienna. “The clear favorite from our vantage point was Hillary Clinton.”

As vote counts across the country began rolling in Tuesday night, and momentum shifted early from Clinton to Trump, the reaction overseas was swift. French Ambassador to the United States Gérard Araud tweeted, “After Brexit and this election, everything is now possible … A world is collapsing before our eyes.”

His initial tweet was later taken down, and a hasty statement from Paris and the French foreign minister replaced it: “France remains an ally of the United States.” On Wednesday, French President François Hollande formally congratulated President-elect Trump but warned: “This American election opens a period of uncertainty.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel also took a diplomatic high road in congratulating Trump, who during the campaign had blasted her as “a total disaster” with her immigration policy.

“Whoever the American people elect as their president in free and fair elections, that has a significance far beyond the USA,” said Merkel. On the basis of shared values, Merkel offered Trump “close cooperation.”

Far-right leaders in Europe, already making political gains in the wake of terrorist attacks and a rising migrant crisis, were more enthusiastic. Dutch parliamentarian Geert Wilders tweeted, “The people are taking their country back. So will we.”

As leaders around the world absorbed the news of a Trump upset, market reaction was swiftest of all: Asian markets, just opening as returns came in, quickly plunged, and the Mexican peso, in its biggest drop in two decades, fell 12 percent. Futures for the Dow Jones stock index by dawn Wednesday had plummeted 730 points, exceeding the market drop of the day of the 9/11 terror attacks, when it fell 540 points. Like the campaign itself, global trading pitched and roared, uncertain what a Trump presidency will mean for global markets.

Trump’s staked position on trade and economic policies are likely to roil international investors for a while, as his foreign policy statements will rattle long-settled alliances. Trump has “a very different attitude” toward NATO and other pacts, as University of Texas scholar Paul D. Miller pointed out in a conference call with reporters the day before Election Day. On the campaign trail, Trump proposed the United States charge NATO partners in Europe for the support and security it provides. “That goes further than any American policy or president since World War II,” noted Miller, who worked for the CIA and in defense intelligence before serving on the National Security Council under former President George W. Bush.

During the campaign, Trump positions on immigration, refugees, and trade drew the most attention. But his views on alliances like NATO—and all global security structures in place since World War II—together with his determination to extract the United States from nation-building and joint security operations would have more immediate effect.

In Syria, for example, the United States currently partners with European allies, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey in fighting both ISIS and the Bashar al-Assad government, using U.S. airstrikes and ground forces numbering several hundred. Trump appears likely to shift to an alliance with Russia, fighting ISIS but no longer seeking to oust Assad.

In the Russian Parliament, news of Trump’s surprise victory sparked applause. Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting a President Trump likely will end U.S. sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea, said, “Russia wants and is ready to restore fully fledged relations with the United States.”

Elsewhere, Trump supporters are looking to the president-elect to roll back Obama-era policies aimed at promoting a gay rights agenda. President Obama, in July 2014, signed an executive order barring federal contractors from discrimination on the basis of sexual identity, and many believed a Clinton presidency would seek to extend those policies to faith-based aid groups using federal funds. Last year, the State Department appointed a special envoy for the human rights of LGBTI persons and has directed overseas aid toward promoting “LBGTI rights in all aspects of USAID’s vital work overseas.”

For all these reasons, noted ADF International’s Thonhauser, “There was huge interest in Europe and probably all over the world in this election.” His organization, which handles legal cases involving individual rights and religious freedom, would not comment or take a position on the U.S. presidency, but he said the polarizing U.S. election presented clear choices, and the outcome for most Europeans is a surprise.

Miller, who described Trump as “a nationalist,” said a move toward U.S. isolationism under a Trump presidency would come at a strange time: “Today is the high point of liberal democracy in the world, with the majority of the world’s people now living under some form of representative government. It is an odd time to doubt the feasibility of spreading democracy—just as we are making progress in spreading the American idea.”