Super Tuesday could clarify presidential races

WASHINGTON—The presidential nominations in both parties could be all but certain by the end of today, as voters go to the polls in 12 U.S. states and one territory.

Candidates have crisscrossed the country to make final pleas ahead of the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses, but it may not matter: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and billionaire businessman Donald Trump appear poised to nearly sweep their respective contests.

Trump, who carries three straight wins into Super Tuesday, has endured his most critical media coverage of the campaign since last Thursday, when Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida launched a relentless debate assault against the Republican front-runner. The attacks have put Trump on defense on numerous issues, including his hesitancy to disavow racist support, his refusal to release his tax returns, secret immigration comments to The New York Times, and pending litigation over allegedly fraudulent Trump University.

According to voter polls, Trump’s evangelical support continues to rise—buoyed by non-church attenders—but prominent evangelicals continue to come out against the real estate mogul. Most recently, David Green, founder and CEO of Oklahoma-based Hobby Lobby, dinged Trump while endorsing Rubio.

“Our family business that we began with $600 has quite possibly been more successful than Mr. Trump’s, but that doesn’t make either of us qualified to be president,” Green said. “And unlike Mr. Trump, we give all the credit to God.”

Meanwhile, Liberty University president Jerry Falwell Jr. continues to be the evangelical standard-bearer for Trump. He recorded a robocall—playing in at least Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Virginia—that vouches for Trump’s character and assails Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas for his campaign tactics.

“Ambition must never be a substitute for character,” Falwell says before urging listeners to vote for Trump.

Entering today, with 604 delegates are on the line, Trump leads the GOP delegate count (82), followed by Cruz (17), Rubio (16), Ohio Gov. John Kasich (6), and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (4). On the Democratic side, Clinton (546) holds a commanding lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (87), I-Vt.

Here is a brief look at what each candidate needs to accomplish on Super Tuesday:

Donald Trump

Trump has met the negative press with his two biggest endorsements to date: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala. Although scant polling is available since last week’s GOP debate, Trump could significantly underperform and still emerge with a stranglehold on the Republican nomination. Trump holds double-digit leads in a half-dozen states, including a 27.5-point average advantage in Massachusetts.

Trump is the story if he wins at least eight states, but don’t be surprised if he wins 10 or 11.

States to watch: Georgia, Virginia, and Oklahoma.

Ted Cruz

Cruz’s path to the nomination has narrowed considerably since he finished a disappointing third in South Carolina—arguably the state closest to Texas demographics. He needs to emerge Tuesday with a delegate lead to seriously compete for the nomination.

On Monday, Cruz unveiled a religious liberty advisory council, trying to get a final boost before conservative Southern states head to the polls. Several of the council members are also on Rubio’s religious liberty panel—a fitting picture of how the two freshman senators are splitting non-Trump voters.

Although Cruz has invested heavily in the South, he only holds polling leads in his home state of Texas and Arkansas. Texas carries the biggest delegate count (155) of the day, but Cruz needs several wins to remain competitive, since many of the later states are less conservative and thus more likely to favor Trump or Rubio.

States to watch: Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Alaska.

Marco Rubio

Rubio’s path is equally challenging and even less predictable. The senator from Florida is speaking to record crowds and has raked in a slew of big-name endorsements—including sitting governors in several states voting today—but he needs a primary win. While Rubio runs second in most states, his only lead is in Minnesota, where the last poll was conducted in January.

If Rubio gets shut out, he’s unlikely to withdraw from the race, but he runs the risk of reaching his home state on March 15 with a 0-27 record. Rubio’s best hope is his late offensive against Trump, which has solidified his establishment backing and won over some Cruz supporters who now see the Floridian as the party’s best shot.

States to watch: Minnesota, Virginia, and Alaska.

John Kasich

Kasich has essentially already conceded Super Tuesday’s results, saying he is waiting for primaries in Michigan (March 8) and his home state of Ohio (March 15). Even if he wins both, Kasich’s only path seems to be a brokered convention—which appears increasingly unlikely to happen, given Trump’s dominance.

State to watch: Massachusetts (Kasich’s only chance at second).

Ben Carson

Carson needs a miracle. He’s far behind in national and state polls, he’s burned through most of his campaign cash, and as an outsider stands little chance in a brokered convention scenario.

Hillary Clinton

Clinton’s huge victory in South Carolina on Saturday largely puts to rest any suspense in the Democratic race. Clinton has 20- to 38-point leads in eight states voting today and slim leads in two others.

States to watch: Oklahoma and Massachusetts.

Bernie Sanders

The Sanders insurgency is losing steam. The self-proclaimed democratic-socialist is poised to win a blowout in his home state of Vermont, but that may be all he gets.

States to watch: Oklahoma and Massachusetts.