Six battleground states forecast to shift U.S. House control

While the party that controls the White House historically loses seats in Congress in midterm elections, two other factors have put otherwise safe districts into play this cycle.

Open seats: Sixty representatives will clean out their desks once the 119th Congress ends in December, with 32 retiring and 28 running for a different office. For example, the Cook Political Report forecasts Democrats will likely flip Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, opened by Rep. Don Bacon’s retirement, while Republicans are favored to pick up Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, currently held by Rep. Jared Golden. Of the 73 races without an incumbent running, CPR has listed fourteen as competitive—toss-ups or only leaning in one direction.

Redistricting: Mid-decade Congressional map drawing will likely help Republicans flip seats in Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and Alabama. But Democrats also stand to gain up to three seats from a new map in California, and could turn redrawn districts in red states like Utah and Ohio blue.

With eighteen districts rated as toss-ups, races in six states stand out.

Arizona Delegation:

1st Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Former state Rep. Amish Shah is the Democratic nominee, former professional football player Jay Feely is the Republican nominee, and retired business owner Monica Alponte is the Libertarian nominee. GOP Rep. David Schweikert left this seat open to run for governor, but lost his primary to fellow GOP Rep. Andy Biggs.

6th Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is up against Democratic retired United States Marine JoAnna Mendoza, and Jereme Peters, a Libertarian candidate.

Florida Delegation:

14th Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor is challenged by Republican nominee and attorney Mike Beltran. One libertarian and two non-party-affiliated candidates are also on the ballot. Republicans hope to flip the seat after redrawing Florida’s congressional map mid-decade.

25th Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Democratic Rep. Jared Evan Moskowitz is challenged by Republican nominee and mayor of Boca Raton Scott Singer. One libertarian and one non-party-affiliated candidate are also on the ballot.

Iowa Delegation:

1st Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is challenged by Democratic nominee and former state Rep. Christina Bohannan and Independent candidate Michael Bridgford.

3rd Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Republican Rep. Zach Nunn is challenged by Democratic nominee Sarah Trone Garriott, a Lutheran minister and state Senator.

Michigan Delegation:

7th Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Barrett faces two challengers: Democratic nominee and climate activist William Lawrence, and Green Party nominee Shane Dedrick.

Michigan 10th Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Republican Rep. John James is running for governor. Democratic nominee and prosecutor Christina Hines, Republican nominee and former U.S. Army Capt. Michael Bouchard, plus three other candidates, are vying for James’ seat.

Ohio Delegation:

9th Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur is challenged by Republican nominee and former state Rep. Derek Merrin, and Kathy McKinstry, an independent. Ohio’s new election map aims to give Republicans an edge in this race.

7th Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Republican Rep. Max Miller is challenged by Democratic nominee and union ironworker Brian Poindexter, and two independent candidates. Miller is currently under investigation by the U.S. House Ethics Committee for alleged domestic violence and illegal drug use.

Pennsylvania Delegation:

7th Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie is challenged by Democratic nominee and former firefighter Bob Brooks, and Green Party candidate Andrew Tupone.

8th Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan Jr. is challenged by Democratic nominee Paige Cognetti, mayor of Scranton, Penn.

10th Congressional District (CPR toss-up): Incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry is challenged by the Democratic nominee and former television news anchor, Janelle Stelson.