Sen. Joni Ernst decides not to pursue reelection, per reports

Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, will announce next month that she will not pursue reelection in 2026, according to a report by the Associated Press citing four unnamed sources familiar with her plans. The two-term senator will leave a highly-contested seat up in the air, creating a moment of political opportunity Democrats will hope to capitalize on.

Ernst last won reelection in 2020, beating out Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield in a 51.7%-45.2% contest. Ernst's term runs through January 2027.

She joins a growing list of Republican senators who have decided not to pursue reelection. They include Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, who is running to become governor.

What’s the context? Republicans face a challenging path to the 2026 midterm elections. The party that takes the White House usually suffers some political fallout in the following midterms.

While most Republicans have voiced confidence in running on the GOP’s legislative body of work, Ernst faces unique political challenges. When asked in May about changes to reductions to Medicaid funding and whether they could lead to lapses in medical coverage, Ernst responded by saying that “we are all going to die.” The comment went viral online, prompting speculation that Democrats would have a particularly strong case against the Iowa incumbent.

Control of the Senate hangs in the balance for the 2026 midterm elections. Republicans narrowly captured the chamber in 2024 because of a series of races that exceeded expectations in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana. With an uphill path to 2026, Republicans will be on the defensive to preserve their current three-seat majority.

Dig deeper:  Read Leo Briceno's report about Republican efforts to preserve a majority in the House of Representatives as well, through redistricting.