Rubio surges again among evangelical insiders

WASHINGTON—WORLD’s evangelical insiders survey has turned into a rout.

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., surged farther ahead of the rest of the presidential field in WORLD’s October survey, more than doubling the support of second-place finisher Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas.

The findings are part of a monthly survey of 103 evangelical leaders and insiders, 86 of whom participated in October. The results are not scientific or representative of all evangelicals but offer a snapshot of how a group of prominent evangelicals are leaning in the 2016 presidential election.

This month, two-thirds of all respondents (66 percent) chose Rubio as either their first or second choice in the 2016 race, up 9.5 percent from September. Only one respondent would not consider voting for him.

Survey participant Russell Moore, president of The Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention, a denomination with 15.8 million members, said Rubio’s fourth straight rise in WORLD’s survey is not a surprise: “He’s explicit about the things evangelicals care about, including human dignity, family stability, and religious liberty.”

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina took a huge tumble from her spike in support in September’s survey, which was conducted immediately after her breakout debate performance on Sept. 16. Fiorina lost more than half of her support this month—from 40 percent combined first- and second-choice selections to 18 percent, slipping from second to fourth place overall.

Fiorina will attempt to replicate last month’s showing at tonight’s GOP debate in Boulder, Colo. Survey participant Mollie Hemingway, senior editor at The Federalist, said the debate will give Fiorina another chance to shine after the media spent the past month attacking her and downplaying her campaign: “Don’t count her out.”

Fiorina’s support in WORLD’s survey migrated mostly to Rubio and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who this week broke businessman Donald Trump’s long unbeaten streak as the GOP front-runner in national polls. Carson jumped from 11 percent combined support in last month’s evangelical insider survey to 17 percent this month.

Ted Cruz took second place for the second time in three months, although his overall support dipped below 30 percent, down 1.6 percent from September. Cruz has shown himself to be the most consistent candidate in WORLD’s survey, but he’s struggled to expand his support beyond a loyal base.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush picked up an additional combined 3 percent to finish less than 1 percent behind Cruz for second place. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal almost doubled his support from last month to 11 percent, edging out Ohio Gov. John Kasich for fifth overall.

A new survey question asked respondents if they would consider not voting or supporting the Democratic nominee if Trump—who again received less than 5 percent of support in the survey—won the GOP nomination. Almost 35 percent indicated they would. Moore said he’s “talked to scores” of evangelicals who say they will vote for a third-party or write-in candidate if Trump is the Republican candidate for president.

Despite the displeasure with Trump, the election enthusiasm for survey participants rose for the fourth straight month. When asked how excited they are about their favorite candidate, almost 81 percent said they were “happy” or “elated” with their choice.

“The media, biased and panicky as ever, like to treat the GOP race as a clown show,” Hemingway said. “In fact, it’s the most exciting and vibrant race we’ve seen in decades. There are genuine policy differences on everything from immigration to domestic spending to foreign policy.”

The most important issues for survey respondents remained largely unchanged from September. Domestic religious freedom (69 percent) and abortion (59 percent) again topped the list, but Supreme Court nominations (31 percent) jumped over marriage and family issues (27 percent) and foreign policy (25 percent) to finish third.

Moore said he believes that evangelicals have yet to settle on a candidate, adding that all of the contenders, including Rubio, should continue to focus their efforts on them.

“Too many journalists and political consultants assume ‘evangelical’ means only the aging prosperity gospel hawkers, end-times racketeers, and those who’ve been activists since before the first Back to the Future film,” Moore said. “Candidates should speak to the newer generations of gospel-focused, theologically rooted evangelicals, because that’s where the future is.”

WORLD’s survey of evangelical leaders and insiders

1. If the presidential election were today, which declared candidate do you prefer?

Marco Rubio, 44.2%, 38 Ted Cruz, 17.4%, 15 Jeb Bush, 9.3%, 8 Carly Fiorina, 7.0%, 6 Ben Carson, 4.7%, 4 Donald Trump, 4.7%, 4 John Kasich, 3.5%, 3 Mike Huckabee, 2.3%, 2 Bobby Jindal, 2.3%, 2 Rand Paul, 2.3%, 2 Hillary Clinton, 1.2%, 1 Lindsey Graham, 1.2%, 1 Chris Christie, 0.0%, 0 Martin O’Malley, 0.0%, 0 Bernie Sanders, 0.0%, 0 Rick Santorum, 0.0%, 0

Answered: 86 Skipped: 0

2. On a scale of 1-to-5, how excited are you about this candidate?

1-Disappointed, 0.0%, 0 2-Lukewarm, 1.2%, 1 3-Satisfied, 18.1%, 15 4-Happy, 56.6%, 47 5-Elated, 24.1%, 20 Average response: 4.04

Answered: 83 Skipped: 3

3. Who is your second choice?

Marco Rubio, 22.0%, 18 Jeb Bush, 19.5%, 16 Ben Carson, 12.2%, 10 Ted Cruz, 12.2%, 10 Carly Fiorina, 11.0%, 9 Bobby Jindal, 8.5%, 7 John Kasich, 6.1%, 5 Mike Huckabee, 3.7%, 3 Undecided, 2.4%, 2 Rand Paul, 1.2%, 1 Rick Santorum, 1.2%, 1 Chris Christie, 0.0%, 0 Hillary Clinton, 0.0%, 0 Lindsey Graham, 0.0%, 0 Martin O’Malley, 0.0%, 0 Bernie Sanders, 0.0%, 0 Donald Trump, 0.0%, 0

Answered: 82 Skipped: 4

4. According to a RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio are the top five contenders for the GOP nomination for president. Which of these candidates do you prefer?

Marco Rubio, 57.8%, 48 Ted Cruz, 24.1%, 20 Jeb Bush, 13.3%, 11 Donald Trump, 2.4%, 2 Ben Carson, 2.4%, 2

Answered: 83 Skipped: 3

5. Who will you absolutely not vote for in the primaries? (Check as many as apply.)

Bernie Sanders, 90.4%, 75 Hillary Clinton, 84.3%, 70 Martin O’Malley, 79.5%, 66 Donald Trump, 79.5%, 66 Lindsey Graham, 63.9%, 53 Chris Christie, 59.0%, 49 Rand Paul, 53.0%, 44 John Kasich, 50.6%, 42 Rick Santorum, 38.6%, 32 Jeb Bush, 31.3%, 26 Mike Huckabee, 28.9%, 24 Ted Cruz, 25.3%, 21 Bobby Jindal, 25.3%, 21 Ben Carson, 19.3%, 16 Carly Fiorina, 4.8%, 4 Marco Rubio, 1.2%, 1

Answered: 83 Skipped: 3

6. What are the top three issues you will consider when selecting a candidate? (Please check only three.)

Religious freedom (domestic), 69.1%, 56 Abortion, 59.3%, 48 Supreme Court nominations, 30.9%, 25 Marriage and family issues, 27.2%, 22 Foreign policy, 24.7%, 20 National security/terrorism, 19.8%, 16 Economy/jobs, 18.5%, 15 Federal debt/deficit, 18.5%, 15 Religious freedom (international), 8.6%, 7 Poverty, 7.4%, 6 Immigration, 6.2%, 5 Healthcare/Affordable Care Act, 4.9%, 4 Taxes, 4.9%, 4 Education, 2.5%, 2 Environment/pollution, 1.2%, 1 Race relations, 1.2%, 1 Crime, 0.0%, 0

Answered: 81 Skipped: 5

7. If Donald Trump is the GOP nominee, would you consider voting for the Democratic nominee?

Yes, 17.3%, 14 No, 65.4%, 53 Would not vote, 17.3%, 14

Answered: 81 Skipped: 5

Graphs by David Freeland.