Rethinking the Air Force

The first image that comes to mind when Americans think of the Air Force is often that of a sleek, fast fighter jet with a dashing pilot in the cockpit. But after studying the global threat environment in the year 2030 and beyond, the Air Force stated traditional manned fighters—with their long development times and the exposure of pilots to threats—could possibly be replaced by networks of stealthy drones and large “arsenal planes” with long-range munitions.

Last month, after a year of study, the Air Force released a document concluding the projected force structure in 2030, which will still include current-generation fighters, will not be capable of dealing with the advanced air and surface threats of potential adversaries.

“After 25 years of being the only great power out there, we’re returning to a world of great power competition,” Lt. Gen. Mike Holmes, Air Force deputy chief of staff for strategic plans and requirements, told an April meeting of the Air Force Association, where the results of the study were first announced. “We need to develop coordinated solutions that bring air, space, cyber, electronic environment and surface capabilities together to solve our problems.”

Air superiority, the complete control of the airspace over the land or sea where friendly forces are operating, is one of the Air Force’s primary missions and is typically carried out by fighters such as the F-22 Raptor and the F-15 Eagle, aircraft designed for high maneuverability and speed to clear the airspace of enemy planes. In other words, “dogfighting.”

“Air superiority is the most important thing the Air Force provides for the joint force in the tactical environment,” Holmes said. “I don’t believe there is anyone in our armed forces who has ever fought a combined arms battle without complete control of the air.”

But the new document, entitled Air Superiority 2030 Flight Plan, claims emerging air-to-air, surface-to-air, space, and cyber threats endanger air superiority. The threats include new fighter aircraft such as the Russian Sukhoi PAK-FA and the Chinese Chengdu J-20, both advanced “fifth-generation” fighters.

The document recommends moving away from terms such as “fighter” and “next generation” and instead focusing on “Penetrating Counterair” capability, or PCA. Without naming specific platforms or whether they would be manned or unmanned, the document recommends the PCA be a networked system of sensors and weapons. According to the military blog War Is Boring, the PCA could consist of modified bombers such as the B-1 or B-52 that could serve as “arsenal planes,” carrying a variety of long-range munitions and firing them, from a safe distance, at targets designated by stealthy drones.

The year 2030 is just around the corner in terms of the time it takes to develop fighter jets in the traditional, “generational” model. It took more than 16 years for the Air Force to develop and field its first combat-ready squadron of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, according to British aviation news site FlightGlobal, and the F-22 took longer than planned, as well. That’s too long to get capabilities in place to meet the emerging threat, the study authors said.

“Exquisite capabilities ended up being late-to-need,” Air Force Col. Alex Grynkewich, who led the Air Superiority 2030 effort, told FlightGlobal, referring to the F-35’s development.

The document urges the Air Force to abandon traditional approaches to develop maturing technologies and experiment with prototypes, according to Grynkewich.

“There’s an operational imperative that says we have to do this faster,” he said. “And if we don’t, we’re at a risk of failing as an Air Force and a joint force.”