Outsiders own New Hampshire

As months of polling predicted, business mogul Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., won big in the New Hampshire primaries on Tuesday, but Republican voters in the state showed they still have divided interests.

“Maybe, just maybe, we’re turning the page on a dark part of American politics,” said Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who finished in second place in the GOP race with almost 16 percent of the vote—19 percentage points behind Trump.

Even though Kasich finished far behind Trump, the governor counted the night as a victory in his last-ditch effort to stay relevant in the long campaign season ahead. Tuesday’s results make it more likely that the battle to coalesce Republican establishment support will not end any time soon.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas narrowly took the bronze medal for the Republicans, a notable victory for the man who won the Iowa caucuses last week and spent little time or money in New Hampshire. Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida finished fourth and fifth. All three captured around 11 percent of the vote, separated by less than 2,700 votes.

On the Democratic side, Sanders trounced former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who won the New Hampshire Democratic primary in 2008 against Barack Obama. Sanders defeated Clinton 60-38 at the polls, but she secured more delegates, 15-13, because state party officials called “superdelegates” are allowed to select the candidate of their choice.

The decisive win for Trump allows the billionaire businessman to revel in his first political victory ever after underperforming last week in Iowa. Evangelical support for Cruz played a key role in the Iowa outcome, but in New Hampshire, a more liberal state, a large independent turnout benefitted Trump.

“I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created!” Trump yelled to his supporters after media outlets projected him as the winner. “We are going now to South Carolina; we are going to win in South Carolina.”

Since 1994, no GOP candidate has gone on to win the party’s nomination for president without finishing first or second in the New Hampshire primary. But big victories prove little: In 2000, Sen. John McCain defeated eventual nominee George W. Bush by 19 points.

Trump won virtually every voter group tracked in exit polling, including 27 percent of evangelicals, who comprised 23 percent of the state’s electorate. Cruz, who spent less than $600,000 in the state, the least of the major candidates, finished second with 23 percent of the evangelical vote.

Bush spent more than $36 million in New Hampshire, but he still counted his fourth-place finish as a victory that exceeded expectations.

“While it looks like the reality TV star is still doing well, it looks like you all have reset the race—and for that I am grateful,” Bush said in his concession speech. “This campaign is not dead.”

Like Trump, Sanders also won every major demographic, including high support from young voters and women—a stinging rebuke to Clinton, who is trying to become the first woman president. Less than half of Democratic voters said they thought Clinton is honest and trustworthy.

In her concession speech, Clinton vowed to learn from the loss and move on.

“I know I have some work to do, especially with young people,” said Clinton, who has battled rumors that she’s considering a campaign shake-up. “Even if they are not supporting me, I am supporting them.”

Although it may take longer than once expected, Clinton is still the runaway favorite to win the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, the race remains wide open.

After Rubio’s strong third-place finish in Iowa, he came to New Hampshire with momentum that many thought would help him exceed expectations again. But the opposite happened: He entered Tuesday polling in second place with 17 percent, but he fell to fifth with a disappointing 10.6 percent.

Most pundits attributed the slide to Rubio’s poor debate performance on Saturday, which led to an avalanche of negative media stories, but his refusal to walk back support for drafting women into military service also hurt him with social conservatives.

In his concession speech, Rubio took full blame for the New Hampshire outcome, pointing to his missteps in Saturday’s debate.

“I’m disappointed with tonight,” Rubio told supporters. “I did not do well on Saturday night. But listen to me: That will never happen again.”

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie made taking down Rubio his top priority in Saturday’s debate, but his attacks only served as a sacrifice fly. Although Christie spent $18 million making a stand in New Hampshire, he finished in sixth with 7.5 percent of the vote. Late Tuesday night his campaign canceled South Carolina events and will instead hold a meeting in New Jersey today.

Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson may have to join Christie in regrouping efforts before heading to the next primary in South Carolina on Feb. 20. Fiorina only won 4 percent of the New Hampshire vote, while Carson finished with just 2 percent.

There were only 23 GOP delegates on the line in the New Hampshire primary—combined with Iowa’s 27, that’s 2 percent of the 2,472 available. Trump, Kasich, Cruz, and Bush will divide up the winnings. Overall, Trump leads with 17 delegates, Cruz has 10, Rubio has seven, Kasich has four, and Bush has three.

Trump heads to South Carolina with a large lead in the polls, but Cruz and Rubio hope to use a winnowing field and strong evangelical turnout to pull off an upset.

For the Democrats, Clinton is the heavy favorite to win in South Carolina, where she has strong ties in the influential African-American community.