Lining up

Virginia's General Assembly will begin its special redistricting session today.Virginia has added a million residents since the last census in 2000, with most of that growth coming outside the Beltway near Washington, so the contentious and heavily politicized process is bound to push political power from rural areas to urban and suburban ones.

What's not so certain, given that Republicans hold the House and Democrats the Senate, is which party will benefit most.

"Southside, southwestern Virginia, the Valley, they're all going to lose seats, and that's the bottom line," said Larry J. Sabato, the University of Virginia political science professor. "After this, the rural legislators are the outsiders looking in."

The population of Loudoun County, the nation's fifth fastest-growing county, grew by 84 percent last decade, from nearly 170,000 people in 2000 to more than 312,000 last year. The increase moved the county from Virginia's sixth-largest in 2000 to fourth in 2010.

Similarly, Prince William County grew by 43 percent, Stafford and James City counties grew by nearly 40 percent each, Spotsylvania increased by 35 percent and Frederick increased by about 32 percent. All of that is far ahead of the statewide population increase of 13 percent, from nearly 7 million in 2000 to about 8 million in 2010.

Major proposals from both parties are trying to capitalize on the need for change. Last week House Republicans filed their majority proposal which would pack up the districts of three downstate Democrats and move them into the fast-growing suburbs of northern Virginia.

Del. Paula Miller of Norfolk would see her 87th House District moved to Prince William and Loudoun Counties. The districts of Democrats Lynwood Lewis and Johnny Joannou and Republican Chris Stolle would cover parts of what was Miller's district.

Del. Clarence E. "Bud" Phillips of Dickenson County would find himself sharing a redrawn 4th House District with fellow Democrat Joseph P. Johnson of Washington County in far southwestern Virginia. Phillips' old district, the 2nd, would move to Prince William and Stafford counties on the other end of the state.

And House Minority Leader Ward L. Armstrong would have to move from the Martinsville and Henry County area near the North Carolina state line to the border with Maryland to remain in his 10th District. The feisty Democrat is in the 16th District with Republican Donald Merricks under the GOP House plan.

Similarly, the Democrats Senate majority plan, sponsored by Democrat Janet Howell of Fairfax, shoehorns Virginia Beach Republicans Frank Wagner and Jeff McWaters into the same Senate seat. Farther west, Howell's plan puts Republican Sen. Ralph Smith of Roanoke in the same district with Sen. Steve Newman, R-Lynchburg.

"Whether the Democrats do it to the Republicans or the Republicans do it to the Democrats, it's still bad policy," Armstrong said.

Both the majority plans would preserve the seats of the vast majority of incumbents.

But the outcome of redistricting is not purely about who wins the bare-knuckle political brawl. Any plan the General Assembly approves must comply with the Federal Voting Rights Act of 1965. In the years shortly after the Civil War, Virginia was among a group of confederate states that rigged their districts to minimize the effects of African American voters. The Act affects nine states: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, Missssippi, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. The Act requires these states to get "preclearance" from the federal Justice Department before finalizing any changes to ensure the changes don't discriminate on the basis of race or color.

Eleven Virginia counties (Augusta, Botetourt, Essex, Frederick, Greene, Middlesex, Pulaski, Roanoke, Rockingham, Shenandoah, and Warren) and four cities (Fairfax, Harrisonburg, Salem, and Winchester) are exempt from the need to obtain Justice Department preclearance. They managed to "bail out," most in the 1980s, by getting a declaratory judgment from the District Court in the District of Columbia.

One final factor: the General Assembly and the municipalities are in a rush to finish redistricting by August so that candidates know in which district they'll be running in time to hold primaries before state elections this November (Oregon is the only other state with off-year elections). But if the redistricting decisions aren't final by election day, the matter goes to court.

Given that Democrats control the Senate, some Republicans told the Washington Post that they might be better off avoiding a compromise before the election, after which they hope to control the House, the Senate, and the Governor's office. The General Assembly may or may not be legally required to produce a state redistricting plan in 2011, but it could likely wait until 2012 to come up with a congressional plan that would boost the GOP's chances of adding a seat to the eight of 11 it currently holds.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

"Like" us on Facebook today!