Kaine comes close

Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine told a college class he's likely to run for a Senate seat next year, a party spokesman said Monday.

The comment - to an undergraduate leadership course taught through the University of Richmond - is the most definitive statement yet from the former Virginia governor about the upcoming race for the seat of retiring Sen. Jim Webb, which Democrats are seeking to hold in next year's elections.

Kaine's offhand reply to a student's question about his plans rocked Virginia politics and surprised national Democratic operatives and Kaine's closest advisers, forcing the DNC to scramble on the issue. Word from Kaine's class spread quickly after a student phoned a news-talk radio station, WINA in Charlottesville. The station's report, pegged only to a caller identified as Greg, raced across Facebook, Twitter and other social media.

Dismayed DNC officials promptly began damage control, and requests through the party to speak to Kaine were denied. DNC spokesman Brad Woodhouse provided first official word of Kaine's remarks in a terse, unpunctuated announcement posted on Twitter around 1:30 p.m. Kaine "did not tell law school class he was running, said likely which has been reported. No final decision pending other commitments," Woodhouse tweeted.

Woodhouse followed moments later with an official statement that Kaine would consult further with President Barack Obama, who appointed him head of the national party. It also said Kaine would honor his DNC travel and fundraising commitments "at least through the end of the month."

Virginia's race will be among the nation's most intensely watched because its outcome will affect national politics. Democrats hold a slim Senate majority, and keeping both of Virginia's seats in Democratic hands is vital to the party if it is to retain control of the Senate beyond 2012. It's also important for Obama's re-election prospects to have a powerful Democrat on the ticket in the Senate race, said former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, the nation's first elected black governor.

"The Virginia Senate race is an election the White House has to have. Obama has to have Virginia if he is going to win," said former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, the nation's first elected black governor.

Kaine, who was governor from 2006 to 2010, is the only Democrat available in Virginia with an established statewide political base, and other candidates are awaiting his decision before deciding whether to run.

Pat McSweeney, former chair of the Republican Party of Virginia noted that Kaine's following is not as strong as that of former Virginia governor and current democratic senator Mark Warner. McSweeney attributed this to the fact that Kaine is unquestionably more liberal, especially in regards to social issues.

Kaine, a Catholic, has a resolutely upheld a pro-abortion record, has opposed marriage amendment efforts, and has supported anti-gun measures. McSweeney also commented that as governor, Kaine accomplished very little, legal or otherwise.

"I was surprised, frankly, that he had no significant accomplishments [while governor]. There is no great marquee achievement that he can point to," McSweeney said, noting that one of Kaine's biggest accomplishments was banning cigarette smoking in restaurants.

Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, said Kaine got off to a stumbling start should he run. "It suggests a campaign that doesn't know what it's doing," said Black, adding it also disappoints potential donors.

But according to McSweeney, Kaine's influence is not to be underestimated. "He does have a following and he has been very active in developing a network of grassroots organizations in Virginia. Tim has devoted a lot of time to working at the grassroots level, and not a lot of people realize that. That's why he's the DNC chairman."

This race could pit two former governors against each other. Republican George Allen, who lost the Senate seat to Webb in 2006 and was governor from 1994 to 1998, announced his candidacy earlier this year. He faces opposition for the nomination from tea party activist Jamie Radtke.

Allen was a strong 2008 presidential contender until a series of blunders derailed his Senate race and Webb won by just 9,000 votes. The Republican primary is shaping up to be a tough race between Allen and Radtke.

McSweeney, a Radtke supporter, said that the outcome of the Republican primary will affect the general election. "If George Allen were able to get the nomination after the struggle, I think he would be damaged going into the fall elections," added that the scenario may be different if Radtke wins the nomination. "She'd be a giant killer, and it would galvanize republicans in Virginia and Independents because of her Tea Party background," he said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.