GOP primed to retain House

UPDATE: Republicans outperformed expectations and held onto their comfortable majority in the House tonight.

“This could be a really good night for America,” said House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., after he won reelection in his district.

Across the board, Republicans won toss-up races. New York GOP Reps. John Katko and Lee Zeldin both claimed victories to keep vulnerable seats.

The GOP is also retaining one of its two African-American House members. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas, defeated Democrat Pete Gallego, who attempted to flip Texas’ 23rd District between parties for the fifth time in 12 years. Hurd’s victory in the toss-up race reflects a near sweep of uncertain races across the country.

UPDATE (11/08/16, 9:56 p.m.): Republicans are off to a good start in their quest to retain a majority in the House of Representatives. The GOP secured several competitive races early in the evening. In Florida, incumbent freshman Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo was a vulnerable target for Democrats. But Curbelo is projected to retain his Miami district. Rep. Barbara Comstock, R-Va., won her district, which was previously predicted to be a close race.

Republicans lost one stalwart in Congress: Rep. John Mica of Florida. Mica represented Florida’s 7th district since 1993, but redistricting allowed Democrat Stephanie Murphy to pull off the upset. This was Murphy’s first time running for office. At 38, Murphy is about half the age of Mica, who turned 73 this year.

After early returns spelled good news for Republicans, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., told reporters she blamed the FBI. She said FBI Director James Comey’s decision to reopen Hillary Clinton’s email probe just two weeks before the election derailed Democratic momentum.

“This is like a Molotov cocktail thrown into a very explosive arena,” Pelosi said of the FBI’s decision.

OUR EARLIER REPORT (11/08/16, 10:49 a.m.): House Republicans go into Election Day poised to keep their majority regardless of who takes control of the White House.

The GOP boasts its largest majority in the House of Representatives since the end of World War II, and the latest polling numbers indicate it will likely retain power in the chamber. Republicans outnumber Democrats 246 to 186, with three vacant seats. Democrats need a net gain of 30 seats to overthrow GOP leadership.

By controlling the House, the Republicans would have the power to block many items on Hillary Clinton’s agenda, should she win the presidency. House Republicans would also control committee assignments and hearing agendas, keeping the door open for further investigation into existing inquiries such as Clinton’s email use while secretary of state, alleged favors granted to donors to The Clinton Foundation, and possible fetal tissue procurement violations by Planned Parenthood and its business partners.

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics final predictions showed Democrats picking up 13 seats on Election Day, falling well short of the 30 they need. And the nonpartisan Cook Political Report projected similar results: Democrats will grow their numbers, but not by enough.

“We rate only 40 House races in ‘lean’ or ‘toss-up,’ and Democrats would need to sweep 35 of them to win control, so Republicans remain overwhelming favorites to hold onto their majority,” said David Wasserman, a Cook House analyst. “But there is still plenty of uncertainty about the size of that majority. Democrats could gain anywhere from 5 to 20 seats.”

Democrats won 30 House seats in 2006, and Republicans netted an unprecedented 63 in 2010. But most pollsters pause at predicting such a sweeping change in Congress in this cycle.

Even with majority control relatively safe, Republicans will be playing defense in dozens of competitive races across the country.

Rep. Barbara Comstock, R-Va., faces a serious threat to winning a second term in Congress. Her district, previously represented by Frank Wolf, has been a Republican mainstay for nearly 40 years; no Democrat has won there since 1978. Yet polls show Comstock is neck-and-neck with her opponent, Democrat LuAnn Bennett.

In Florida, several Republicans are attempting to eke out another term in office. Rep. John Mica has represented Florida’s 7th District since 1993, but redistricting allowed for more Democratic-leaning Hispanics to join his constituency, making him vulnerable. One of the GOP’s few minority members, Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida, will also face an uphill battle for reelection. The first-term congressman has tried to avoid connections with Donald Trump all year, but has failed to fully separate himself. Trump’s unpopularity with Hispanics in his Miami district leaves Curbelo particularly exposed.

Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas, one of only two African-Americans in the House GOP conference, represents a district that’s nearly 70 percent Hispanic. Trump’s unpopularity with his constituency has made his district a toss-up race, as well.

Other vulnerable GOP congressmen include Reps. Frank Guinta, N.H.; Scott Garrett, N.J.; Bob Dold, Ill.; and Darrell Issa, Calif., to name a few.

Most pollsters don’t expect Republicans to add to their majority, but a few races could be within reach. The open seat of Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Ariz., who’s challenging Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in the Senate race, could go to a Republican. And the district of Rep. Brad Ashford, D-Neb., is primed for Republicans to recapture, according to many forecasts.