GOP contest could be up to Indiana

It’s been decades since candidates—or the rest of the country—paid much attention to the presidential nomination process in Indiana. But this year, the Republican race to the White House could depend on the Hoosier state’s late-season primary.

Indianans are just as surprised as the rest of the nation to find their primary votes are suddenly so meaningful.

“We’re not really used to this,” said Micah Clark, executive director of the American Family Association of Indiana (AFA). “Usually by the time Indiana’s May primary rolls around, the presidential race has been pretty much decided.”

Not since 1976—the year Ronald Reagan ran against Gerald Ford—has the GOP nomination been up in the air during the Indiana primary, scheduled this year for May 3. Though Donald Trump has a strong lead over Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, in the delegate race so far, he must win 392 more to get to the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination outright—about 60 percent of the remaining delegates.

If Trump doesn’t nail down the nomination before the convention, many convention delegates will have the option to change their votes on the second and subsequent ballots. Both Cruz and Kasich are lobbying hard to make sure those votes go to them. Trump could still win a contested convention, but his easiest road to the nomination is to earn delegates in the primaries.

Trump can probably count on New Jersey’s 51 delegates, along with 40 percent of the delegates in the remaining states that allocate them proportionally or near-proportionally. But Cruz is expected to get the winner-take all states of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana—all in the West where he has outperformed Trump so far. If that happens, Trump would still be about 200 delegates short.

And that’s where Indiana comes in.

Indiana has the most delegates available, 57, of any remaining primary state except California. Thirty of those are winner-take-all, and the rest are decided by congressional district (if you win the district, you get that district’s three delegates). One candidate could theoretically win all the state’s delegates, getting a comfortable head start before California’s decisive primary. California has a lot of delegates—172—but probably not enough to save Trump’s nomination if he loses in Indiana.

Complicating the picture is the lack of polling data from Indiana. The state does not allow automated calls, many pollsters’ preferred method of collecting information from voters. So far, there’s virtually no scientific polling data about where the presidential primary stands in the state, leaving candidates and the media reading tea leaves about where to focus their efforts.

In recent weeks, Trump held a rally at the state fairgrounds, set up several offices across the state, and named well-known Republican activist Rex Early as his campaign chairman. Early did not immediately return a request for comment.

Cruz visited Indianapolis with his wife, Heidi, on Thursday. Before that, his father, Rafael Cruz, toured the state and met with pastors in an attempt to strengthen Cruz’s support from religious voters, according to the Rev. Ron Johnson, executive director of the Indiana Pastors Alliance, who helped arrange the visits.

Both candidates met with Gov. Mike Pence, who is up for re-election and may or may not make an endorsement.

Trump’s biggest advantage in the state is Hoosiers’ suspicion of the establishment. Four years ago, Indiana Republicans ousted long-term incumbent Sen. Richard Lugar, favoring then-State Treasurer Richard Mourdock, a tea party candidate. Mourdock lost the election to Democrat Joe Donnelly.

Clark said antiestablishment sentiments go hand-in-hand with pro-life and pro-family positions for Indiana voters.

“It is very hard for a Republican to win anything in Indiana if he’s not pro-life and at least projects himself or herself as a conservative,” Clark said. This year, the Republican state legislature passed a law banning abortions for genetic conditions such as Down syndrome. Last year, Indiana stirred a national controversy by passing a law protecting religious liberty, which both Clark and Johnson identified as one of the most important social issues in the presidential campaign.

“The 15 years I’ve been with AFA, every time I asked our supporters in a poll, abortion was their No. 1 concern,” Clark said. “That changed last year. It’s now religious liberty.”

Cruz’s support for laws protecting freedom of religion was a major reason Johnson decided to back him.

“He’s the only candidate left who has come out strongly in favor or protecting our First Amendment liberties,” Johnson said.

Neither the pro-Trump group Indianans for Trump nor the billionaire businessman’s state campaign office responded to requests for comment.

As Cruz and Trump have vied for the top spot in Indiana’s primary, Ohio Gov. John Kasich has worked a different angle, trying to get delegates to support him at a contested convention. The Kasich campaign has boasted in the media that more than half Indiana’s delegates have pledged to support the Ohio governor on the convention’s second ballot.

Meanwhile, national policy groups also are recognizing Indiana’s importance. The super political action committee of the Club for Growth, a Washington economic policy group that has endorsed Cruz, is spending $1.5 million on ads in Indiana, The Washington Times reported. Club for Growth president David McIntosh told USA Today the state is key to achieving its goal of helping Cruz defeat Trump.

“We’re gearing up to have a major presence there,” McIntosh said. “It’s key that Cruz win [Indiana] to stop Trump from getting the nomination.”