Election Day 2014 promises to be a nail-biter

WASHINGTON—Politicians will tell you every election is the most consequential in decades, and most voters feel as if nothing ever changes in Washington. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, but one thing about the 2014 election is certain: It will go down as the most expensive midterm election in U.S. history.

After some 2 million television ads and about $4 billion in spending, Election Day has arrived. For many candidates, it will feel like Christmas in November. Some incumbents may think it feels more like judgement day. Both parties still have opportunities to score big wins at the polls, but an increasing body of evidence shows Republicans poised for a big night and taking control of the U.S. Senate.

History shows political parties with an unpopular president in the White House don’t fair well in midterm elections. President Barack Obama’s approval rating languishes around 40 percent—well below that in some states with contested races.

“We feel very optimistic,” Rob Collins, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), told me Monday. “We have a president who doesn’t have the support of the American people … but also we have a lot of excellent Republican candidates.”

The GOP does have a better slate of candidates than in 2012, but it couldn’t have known how well they would match up with the events of 2014. Amid an avalanche of national security and foreign policy crises—including Islamic State terror in the Middle East, Russian aggression in Europe, Boko Haram in Africa, and a wave of unaccompanied minors at the U.S. border with Mexico—Americans have grown increasingly unhappy with the way Obama has performed on the world stage. As foreign policy interest grew, Republicans had six U.S. Senate candidates with military experience ready to discuss those issues with voters.

Obama aside, Democrats have also had to battle other disasters at home, including Ebola concerns and scandals at the Internal Revenue Service, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Secret Service. Then there’s Obamacare, the gift, politically speaking, that keeps on giving to Republicans.

Democrats have used a cash advantage to stay close in many races, but undecided voters often break late for the opposition in midterm elections. Rather than focus on an improving economy, Democrats chose to pivot to raising the minimum wage and reviving their “war on women” rhetoric against Republicans—essentially preaching to the choir instead of expanding their base.

Sen. Mark Udall in Colorado is the poster child for how the strategy hasn’t worked. He earned the nickname “Mark Uterus” for running an “obnoxious, single-issue campaign” that cost him the endorsement of the left-leaning Denver Post.

“It’s ignorant and insulting when Democrats equate a policy debate to ‘war’ when our sisters overseas are in the midst of a real war—being attacked, sold into slavery, and even killed at the hands of ISIS, Boko Haram, and other terrorists,” said Penny Nance, president of Concerned Women for America Legislative Action Committee.

Republicans are expected to pick up eight to 10 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, while a whopping 18 gubernatorial races are still in play, including Democrat and Republican incumbents in danger from Colorado and Kansas to Connecticut and Florida.

But the highest national drama will play out in the U.S. Senate, where Republicans need at least six seats to capture the majority. Three of those seats are essentially in the bag: Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia are expected to easily flip from Democrat to Republican. Arkansas is also highly likely to go from blue to red.

The Real Clear Politics national map shows eight more races that are still considered tossups, but historically, battleground races rarely break evenly for each party—or even close to it—and 2014 appears to be no different. Entering Tuesday, GOP candidates are consistently polling ahead in five of the eight close contests, including four seats held by Democrats, and the other three are within a percentage point.

“The independents are breaking towards us,” Collins said. “While it could be a long night, we feel like we’re going to have a successful night.”

That’s more than Republican optimism: On Monday the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics predicted the GOP will net eight Senate seats to take a 53-47 majority in the 114th Congress. Here’s a look at where the close races stand headed into Election Day:

Alaska—leans Republican

Freshman Democratic Sen. Mark Begich ran a solid campaign, but it appears his one key mistake may cost him the race. After holding a consistent polling lead for months, Begich ran a Labor Day ad suggesting his opponent, former Alaska Attorney General Dan Sullivan, was indirectly responsible for a sexual assault and double homicide. Begich was forced to remove the ad, and Sullivan has led the race ever since.

Alaska polls close at 9 p.m. local time, 1 a.m. on the East Coast, so it could be a very long night if Senate control hangs on the Last Frontier.

Arkansas—leans Republican

The Arkansas Senate race hasn’t generated a lot of national headlines, but Republican Rep. Tom Cotton has quietly built a strong lead against incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor. Cotton has had no major gaffes and spent his time tying Pryor to both the president and his signature healthcare law, the Affordable Care Act. Pryor has hit Cotton over women's issues but with little success in the deep red state.

Colorado—leans Republican

Republican Rep. Cory Gardner has had momentum in the race for weeks, but the best news came Friday: A report from Colorado’s secretary of state showed 104,000 more Republicans than Democrats cast ballots during early voting. The race is one of several must-wins for Democrats.

Georgia—leans Republican

David Perdue has recovered his squandered lead in Georgia, a state Republican Mitt Romney won by 8 points in 2012. Two weeks ago a gaffe left Perdue trailing Democrat Michelle Nunn, but polls consistently show Perdue ahead by 2-4 percentage points.

The latest survey shows Perdue at the magic 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff, which wouldn’t be held until Jan. 6. Perdue should be in even better position to win the runoff, since he would likely pick up the majority of libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford’s supporters.

Iowa—leans Republicans

In a map full of important races, Iowa is at the top of the list. It’s a long-time Democrat seat that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said is a must-win. Republican Joni Ernst finished strong to win a seven-way primary outright, and she appears in the process of doing the same thing in the general election: Polls show she is holding a modest but consistent lead over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley. Ernst would become the first female combat veteran in the U.S. Senate.

Kansas—tossup

Independent businessman Greg Orman has given long-time Sen. Pat Roberts the fight of his political life, but it may not be enough. Polls show the two neck-and-neck, and Orman has plenty of money to pour into his campaign. But the political newcomer—who only announced his candidacy in June—doesn’t have in place a strong ground game infrastructure. The GOP is quietly optimistic that Roberts’ sophisticated ground game will carry him to victory.

Louisiana—leans Republican

In the Pelican State, a candidate must receive 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff, and it’s entirely possible that no one will even reach 40 percent. Three-term Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Democrat, likely will get the most votes in today’s open primary, but nowhere near what she needs to win outright. Rep. Bill Cassidy, a doctor and three-term congressman, appears poised to win a Dec. 6 runoff.

New Hampshire—tossup

Republican challenger Scott Brown has used immigration and national security issues to chip away at Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s lead, making the race into a virtual tie. Results in the Granite State, along with East Coast states North Carolina and Georgia, could tell us a lot about the way the election is headed: If Shaheen, who has had a lot of outside help, falls, it would signal a bad night for Democrats. If she squeaks out a victory, it may be a while before we know who wins Senate control.

North Carolina—tilts Democrat

This is the only race where education has played a central role in the campaigns, which have combined to be the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history. Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis, Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, have both made their points and fought to a draw on the issue—much like the campaign itself. Hagan carries an ever-so-slight polling lead into the election, but it likely will come down to which side has a better ground game. Most bets are on the incumbent.

Virginia—leans Democrat

In an almost-forgotten race, even in parts of Virginia, Republican Ed Gillespie is making a late push to close the gap against incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, a former Virginia governor. Gillespie trailed by as much as 30 points, but two recent polls show him trailing by 7 and 4 points. Given the shockwaves Virginia gave the nation when its seventh congressional district ousted House Majority Leader Eric Cantor earlier this year, it's probably wise not to count out Gillespie, a long-time Republican operative running for office for the first time. Still, it’s Warner’s race to lose.