Election countdown: Still too close to call

President Barack Obama is losing a big part of his base, according to new ABC/Washington Post polling data. The survey found women, young people, and Latino voters have all soured on Obama since his 2012 reelection, which could have a serious ripple effect for Democrats this fall.

“It makes a Democratic campaign a lot harder,” John Aldrich, a Duke University political science professor told me this week. “If they’re not fans [of Obama], it’s going to be that much harder for the Democrats to mobilize them.” Aldrich put 2-to-1 odds on Republicans taking control of the U.S. Senate in November.

Obama’s sagging approval numbers are tied in large part to perceived weakness on foreign policy, an issue that favors Republicans. Days after the president announced a plan to stamp out the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the group beheaded a third Westerner—British aid worker David Haines. Although the economy, immigration, the Affordable Care Act and other issues are playing a role in races, national security continues to rise in importance for voters across the country.

Republicans hold a slight edge in the battle for the Senate, but nine races remain tossups with seven weeks remaining until Election Day. Today we continue our weekly roundup of campaign highlights:

North Carolina

A significant number of fence-sitting voters are responsible for varying poll numbers in the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina, Aldrich said. Voters don’t strongly like or dislike incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, or her Republican challenger, Thom Tillis, which is causing them to “switch back and forth fairly easily,” Aldrich said. The latest polls show Hagan with a modest lead after a strong performance in the first debate.

In an attempt to move the needle toward Tillis, the conservative group Americans for Prosperity this week announced 14 rallies across North Carolina to call out Hagan’s support for President Obama—with whom it says she has voted 95 percent of the time. But that remaining 5 percent could be problematic: Aldrich said Hagan has opposed Obama just enough to put some separation between herself and the president. He predicted the race will go down to the wire, unless one of the candidates makes a big mistake between now and Election Day.

Iowa

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton finally stepped back into Iowa this past weekend after a 2,446-day absence. Clinton, along with former President Bill Clinton, attended retiring Sen. Tom Harkin’s annual steak fry in support of Rep. Bruce Braley—the Democrat trying to replace Harkin.

Braley has a slight edge against state Sen. Joni Ernst, 44, who is trying to become the first female senator from Iowa. The race is one of the nation's closest and could turn on outside group spending, which has so far favored Braley.

Georgia

Former President George H.W. Bush on Monday threw his support behind David Perdue, the former Dollar General CEO who is running for an open Senate seat in Georgia. Perdue’s opponent, Michelle Nunn, used to run Bush’s Points of Light Foundation, so the endorsement is significant. Nunn has touted her connections to Bush in the conservative-leaning state, but the former president made it clear who he thinks should represent Georgia in Washington, D.C. Perdue is leading in most polls.

Florida

The Sunshine State is mired in a gloomy battle for governor that has already cost some $40 million—a number that could double or triple in the next eight weeks. Former Gov. Charlie Crist is trying to become the first Democrat in 16 years to occupy the governor’s mansion, after serving as a Republican and then Independent from 2007 to 2011. Incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Scott is holding on to a slight lead in most polls, but most are within the margin of error.

New Hampshire

On the heels of Scott Brown’s primary win last week, a CNN poll released Monday showed him locked in a tie—48 percent to 48 percent—with incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat and former governor. A Rasmussen poll showed Shaheen leading by 6 points, 48 percent to 42 percent, but either way, the race is tightening in a state that has tilted toward Democrats in the last two decades. (New Hampshire has gone Democrat in five of the last six presidential elections.)

Brown, who represented Massachusetts in the Senate from 2010 to 2013, also picked up a weekend endorsement from Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky. “If New Hampshire elects Scott Brown, Harry Reid will be the minority leader,” Paul told Breitbart News. “The American public needs to realize that unless Republicans become the majority party, we’re going to continue to be under the iron fist of Harry Reid, and as long as that happens, no legislation will pass and nothing will get done for another couple years.”