Election 2014: Security fears explode

WASHINGTON—A new POLITICO poll reveals voters are concerned now more than ever about national security and foreign policy issues with two weeks to go until Election Day. The survey found a majority of likely voters in competitive states believe circumstances—from Ebola to terrorism—are out of control. A whopping 84 percent believe the Islamic State is a serious threat to the U.S. homeland, and only 22 percent are confident in the federal government to do everything it can to contain Ebola.

WORLD explores this election dynamic in the latest issue of our magazine, which includes stories on state legislatures and President Barack Obama’s judicial appointments. We also have features on tight U.S. Senate races in Colorado, Kansas, Iowa, Kentucky, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Perhaps more than any other race, national security issues have pivoted the campaign narrative in North Carolina, where Republican Thom Tillis is making it a focal point in his battle against incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan. But as much as the issue is resonating with voters, North Carolina also illustrates another national dynamic: Most races remain very competitive. Despite the dreadful national climate for Democrats, Hagan still holds a narrow lead over Tillis in most polls.

Democrats have invested heavily in ground game operations around the country, hoping it will help them close some of the narrow deficits. Although Democrats are virtually assured of losing seats in both the House and Senate, it would be a huge victory if they retain control of the Senate—and they are banking on their base to deliver it.

Here is our weekly roundup of campaign news:

Georgia

The map for possible Democratic pickups is very small, but the U.S. Senate race in Georgia is an increasingly strong possibility. The latest polls show Democrat Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn, with a 1- to 3-point lead in the race. Although the negligible advantage falls within the surveys’ margin of error, the results indicate Republican David Perdue’s lead has evaporated.

Traditional reasoning said Perdue, who defeated several more conservative candidates in a contentious primary, would have a smooth path to victory in deep-red Georgia. But a 2005 video surfaced showing the former Dollar General CEO saying he’s spent most of his career outsourcing jobs to other countries, and when questioned about the comment, Perdue said he’s “proud of it.” That hasn’t gone over well with voters. Nunn is blitzing the airwaves with ads exploiting Perdue’s statements, and it seems to be working.

Kansas

Kansas is another state where the GOP is struggling to play defense, but long-time Republican Sen. Pat Roberts has continued his resurgence over the last two weeks. Three of the last four polls show Roberts with a modest lead, and it’s likely voters in the conservative state will continue to slide back to the incumbent. Although the race remains close, The Washington Post’s Election Lab projects Republicans have a 95 percent chance of keeping the seat.

Even if challenger Greg Orman pulls off the upset, it doesn’t necessarily help Democrats. Orman, a Democrat-turned-independent, has indicated he will caucus with whichever party wins the majority. Assuming Democrats win in Georgia, current projections still have Republicans picking up the six seats necessary to control the Senate. The GOP also could get some help from Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, who has caucused with Democrats since his 2012 election but told The Washington Post he might switch if Republicans take control.

Arkansas

Project Veritas Action, and a conservative investigative group, has unveiled its newest undercover operation, this time in Arkansas. Sen. Mark Pryor, a Democrat, has said publicly he supports traditional marriage, but Project Veritas Action found campaign insiders who said he’s just saying what he needs to say to get elected.

“He can’t say everything he wants to say to get elected,” said Laura Campbell with the Pine Bluff Democrats. “He has to play politics.”

Pryor’s odds in conservative Arkansas are slimmer than ever: Recent polls show Republican Rep. Tom Cotton holding a lead consistently greater than the margins of error. Today Real Clear Politics moved the race from a toss-up to leaning Republican.

Texas

Democrat Wendy Davis always faced long odds to defeat Republican Greg Abbott for Texas governor, but this month her campaign slid completely off the rails. Last week, WORLD reported on Davis’ high profile attack ad that tried to use Abbott’s own disability against him. This week she accused Abbott of opposing interracial marriage. There’s just one problem: Abbott has been married to a Hispanic woman for more than 30 years.

The latest poll shows Abbott, the state attorney general whom WORLD profiled in May, leading by 15 points. Even Davis supporters seem to acknowledge the question isn’t if she will lose, but by how much.

Iowa

Polls continue to lean in favor of Republican Joni Ernst, and Democrats are starting to point fingers. Supporters of Democrat Bruce Braley aren’t happy with retiring Sen. Tom Harkin, who is holding on to $2.4 million that he doesn’t want to transfer to the man struggling to keep his seat. Harkin says he wants to donate the money to the Harkin Institute for Public Policy and Citizen Engagement at Des Moines’ Drake University.