Election 2014: Parties limp toward finish line

WASHINGTON—Last week the polling firms Public Opinion Strategies and Purple Strategies sat down to discuss the 2014 election with two groups of “Walmart moms”—mothers with at least one child under 18 who made one trip to Walmart in the last month. The focus groups, conducted in battleground states Louisiana and North Carolina, contained exactly the type of voters Democrats and Republicans will spend the next seven days trying to win over: undecided, often low-information voters.

Most of the women couldn’t name the leaders of either party in Congress, but they could identify that the world has become a “sad and dangerous place.” According to these women, Ebola has overtaken ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) as their top security concern: “Ebola is here, ISIS is there,” said one mom.

The swing voter sample had plenty of blame to spread around: From Congress to President Barack Obama to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, these women had little positive to say about anyone making decisions. They don’t believe Washington will change, regardless of which candidates win next week.

Perhaps that sentiment explains why the last week has been so quiet on the campaign trail. As members of both parties make closing arguments, voters are largely unimpressed with politicians who seem more interested in bickering and securing power than in serving the nation’s best interest.

Republicans still hold leads in more than enough U.S. Senate races to take control in January, but they’ve been unable to significantly move the needle in recent weeks. With the election looming in seven days, the results may come down to which party voters hate the least.

Here’s our weekly roundup of political news:

Georgia

The biggest movement of the week again came in Georgia, a week after many pundits began predicting Democrat Michelle Nunn was en route to an Election Day upset thanks to a major gaffe by Republican David Perdue. But Perdue appears to have stopped the bleeding: Consecutive polls showed the former Dollar General CEO with modest leads—2 and 3 percentage points—for the first time since early October.

Like Louisiana, the Georgia race has a third candidate who likely will keep either major party from claiming a victory on Nov. 4. But while Louisiana’s runoff would be on Dec. 6, Georgia’s overtime election wouldn’t take place until Jan. 6. Control of the U.S. Senate likely will already be decided by then, but it’s certainly plausible that it won’t be decided until 2015.

Louisiana

Speaking of the Pelican state, Republican Bill Cassidy has opened up a 7-point lead against incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu in a potential head-to-head matchup. But the three-term congressman likely will finish second on Nov 4. Louisiana’s open primary system has both Cassidy, whom WORLD profiled in August, and Landrieu languishing under 40 percent.

The delayed outcomes in the two Southern states, and possibly elsewhere, could bring back the Affordable Care Act as a major campaign issue. There is a steady stream of bad news emanating from the law, and the administration’s decision to delay the 2015 open enrollment period until mid-November—ensuring potential new customers can’t see insurance premiums until after the election—could inflame voters in runoff states just before they cast their ballots.

New Hampshire

Former Sen. Scott Brown may be peaking at the right time. A New England College poll released Monday night showed him leading Sen. Jeanne Shaheen by just more than 1 percentage point—the same result it has found in two other polls this month. Every other survey has shown Shaheen with a small lead, but virtually all results are within the margin of error.

Brown is no stranger to upsets: He won a 2010 special election in Massachusetts to replace long-time Sen. Ted Kennedy.

South Dakota

The brief Republican scare in South Dakota appears to have subsided. Consecutive polls showing a tight race at the beginning of October prompted GOP handwringing and ad-buying, but last week two major surveys found Republican Mike Rounds has regained his double-digit lead. Rounds, the state’s former governor, bested Democratic challenger Rick Weiland by 14 points and independent Larry Pressler by 27 points in an NBC News/Marist poll.

Utah

Mia Love appeared to have a smooth path to becoming the GOP’s first African-American woman in Congress, replacing the retiring Jim Matheson, but a new poll cast doubt on her steady lead. A Brigham Young University survey released Monday showed Democrat Doug Owens with a modest lead—his first polling advantage of the race—46 percent to 42 percent.

BYU pollsters said they consider the race a dead heat, because of the potential for statistical error: The survey was taken from 236 voters who in the past participated in BYU’s college exit polls. A Love spokesman panned the result and methodology, saying the numbers don’t line up with the campaign’s internal tracking.

Governorships

Talk of which party will control the U.S. Senate has dominated election news, but the nation may be headed toward a historic year for governor’s races. The electoral map is littered with tight contests, endangered incumbents, and potential upsets.

Perhaps nowhere is the tumult more evident than in Massachusetts, where Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Charlie Baker are battling to replace retiring Democrat Deval Patrick. Coakley was expected to win in the solidly blue state, but Baker has a lot of fans—including the left-leaning Boston Globe, which surprisingly endorsed him on Sunday.

The race is still considered a tossup, but the latest poll shows Baker up by 9 points. Coakley also lost a winnable Senate race to Scott Brown in 2010, leading some to dub her “Martha Chokely.”

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