Election 2014: GOP has immigration edge

WASHINGTON—Immigration is a hot topic in many 2014 congressional races, but not in the same terms as it often discussed over the past 18 months. What had been a discussion about deportations, guest worker programs, and the country’s 11 million illegal immigrants, has turned into a debate mostly focused on stopping terrorists from crossing the U.S. border to carry out attacks on the homeland.

“Immigration has gone from a social, law-and-order issue to a national security issue,” Rep. Mick Mulvaney, R-S.C., told WORLD. “Those issues are melding.”

There are no verified reports of terrorists trying to cross the border, but with Islamic extremists in Africa and the Middle East openly vowing to attack the United States, Americans are concerned about vulnerabilities. Republicans have seized the issue, saying this summer’s border crisis shows how poorly the administration has handled immigration, especially border security.

“America spends all this money trying to secure the border between Syria and Iraq, and people are asking, ‘What about our borders?’” Mulvaney said. “We can’t dismiss any of this as internet hyperbole.”

Recent polls show voters now trust Republicans more to handle immigration, but the honeymoon may be short-lived. Although support for comprehensive reform has dropped, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found 72 percent of registered voters still favor an overhaul with a pathway to citizenship for the country’s 11 million illegal immigrants if they pay a fine, back taxes, and pass a background check. Fifty-two percent of respondents said Republican claims that border security must come before comprehensive reform is an excuse to block it.

As those issues work themselves out on the campaign trail, Republicans maintain narrow leads in many of the races that will determine control of the U.S. Senate. According to the The Washington Post, the GOP has a 95-percent chance of picking up at least the six seats it needs for a Senate majority, while famed statistician Nate Silver gives Republicans about a 60-percent chance.

Here’s our roundup of recent campaign developments:

Colorado

Republican Rep. Cory Gardner was already trending upward against incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, but on Friday the challenger picked up an unexpected endorsement. The left-leaning Denver Post said the Senate needs fresh ideas, and Gardner is the man to bring them.

The Post’s editorial board criticized Udall for not being a leader and devoting “a shocking amount of time and energy trying to convince voters that Gardner seeks to outlaw birth control, despite the congressman’s call for over-the-counter sales of contraceptives. Udall is trying to frighten voters rather than inspire them with a hopeful vision.”

Most recent polls show Gardner holding a slim lead.

Kansas

Political novice Greg Orman, a former Democrat running as an independent, seemed to have capitalized on voter discontent when he took a 10-point lead against incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts earlier this month. But Orman may have peaked early. The latest polls show a much closer race, including two that found Roberts leading after Republicans brought out its heaviest hitters to support him. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., former Florida Republican Gov. Jeb Bush, and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisc.—all potential 2016 presidential candidates—are among the Republican leaders who have flocked to Kansas to help save Roberts.

South Dakota

Despite an uninspiring campaign from Republican favorite Mike Rounds, most observers believed he would deliver an easy pickup for the GOP. That’s now in doubt. Rounds’ polling lead appears to be slipping to Democrat Rick Weiland and independent Larry Pressler, a former Republican senator. Another conservative independent, Gordon Howie, also threatens to siphon votes from Rounds.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced it will spend $1 million on ads attacking Rounds, saying it believes the race is winnable. Some have suggested Democrats may be bluffing, but the GOP isn't willing to risk it. The National Republican Senatorial Committee announced it will also put $1 million toward the race.

Kentucky

President Barack Obama is very unpopular in Kentucky, and Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes knows it. She’s going to great lengths to avoid saying whether she voted for the president in 2008 or 2012—unintentionally turning it into a campaign issue. Most polls show Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell holding a modest lead.

Virginia

Democratic Sen. Mark Warner on Monday night had to answer repeated questions about his role in the resignation of a Virginia state senator during the first debate between Warner and Republican challenger Ed Gillespie. Warner last week acknowledged he discussed a judgeship for Phillip Puckett’s daughter when Democrats were trying to convince him not to resign in an evenly divided chamber. Warner on Monday insisted he did nothing wrong because he didn't actually offer a position.

Warner has maintained a double-digit lead throughout the race.

Louisiana

Democrat alarms are sounding in Louisiana. Three-term Sen. Mary Landrieu fired her campaign manager, Adam Sullivan, and installed Ryan Berni, who headed her brother Mitch Landrieu’s reelection campaign for New Orleans mayor.

With only three weeks remaining before Election Day, the move is more likely laying the groundwork for a runoff campaign than a plan to win on Nov. 4. Landrieu may get a plurality of votes over Republican challengers Bill Cassidy and Rob Maness, but she’s not polling anywhere near the 50 percent necessary to avoid overtime. Cassidy is polling about 6 percentage points ahead of Landrieu in a potential head-to-head matchup. This ad discusses some of the reasons why:

Deena Bouknight contributed to this report.