Down to the wire

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Scott Brown is up in the most recent poll in Massachusetts, but Democrats are pulling out all the stops to defeat him

BOSTON-One thing Democrats have learned over the last two weeks of the campaign to fill Edward Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts: Voters are much angrier than they had anticipated. "Where's the private sector jobs?" asked Robert Burke, 53, a Bostonian who was laid off in 2008 and still hasn't found work. He stood along a street Friday in the North End of Boston, a heavily Italian neighborhood, waiting for a rally with Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Scott Brown and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Burke held a handwritten sign: "Had enough yet?"

The most recent poll on the race from Public Policy Polling shows Brown, a state senator, up 5 percent over Democrat Martha Coakley, the state's attorney general, with a 3 percent margin of error. Brown has erased a 30-point advantage that Coakley held back in December. While only 12 percent of Massachusetts voters are Republican, and the state has a legacy of electing liberal officials, the majority of voters are unaffiliated with a political party. The most recent poll shows Brown beating Coakley 64-32 among independents, the key demographic he needs to win.

"They are frightened," Giuliani said Friday, referring to Democrats. "They couldn't in a million years have imagined being where we are right now."

Democrats have unleashed all their firepower on Brown's campaign, spending millions on ads tying Brown to former President George W. Bush and flying in the stars of the Democratic Party. Those campaigning for Coakley included former President Bill Clinton and Massachusetts' Sen. John Kerry in Boston on Friday, Kennedy's widow, Vicki, on Saturday, and President Obama on Sunday. Obama has high stakes in this race because if Coakley loses, Republicans would have 41 seats in the Senate, enough to filibuster and block passage of the healthcare reform bill.

"Understand what's at stake here, Massachusetts," Obama told the crowd at Northeastern University Sunday. "It's whether we're going forward, or going backwards."

The president also sought to redirect voter anger away from the political establishment: "So people are frustrated and they're angry, and they have every right to be. I understand. . . . When the chips are down, when the tough votes come on all the fights that matter to middle-class families across this commonwealth, who is going to be on your side?" And the audience replied, "Martha!"

Brown has pointedly not invited Republican stars to campaign for him, as he seeks to cast himself as an independent. "This race is not about outsiders," Brown told the crowd gathered outside in the North End, where snow patched the sidewalks and park. As Brown walked from cafe to diner to bakery in the neighborhood, a bystander, Dennis McLaughlin, commented, "He represents what's been simmering under the surface."

Coakley is a liberal's liberal, and for all the talk about her as the 60th vote for healthcare, she has suggested that she would vote against healthcare reform if it included the House's more stringent abortion regulations. Brown is more conservative, but he is a moderate in certain areas. He's pro-abortion-though he opposes partial-birth abortion and federal funding for abortions-and he supports same-sex civil unions and the states' rights to legalize same-sex marriage. While he has promised to vote against healthcare reform in the Senate, he supports the state's government-run healthcare.

While momentum has swung over the last week to the Republican, a full two days remain before polls close, an eternity in politics. The enthusiasm for Brown could have peaked too early and the Democrats' recent push to enliven Massachusetts' liberal voters could be enough to push Coakley to victory. But this is a special election, where turnout is unpredictable, and so are the results.

Whoever wins the seat will complete the two years remaining in Kennedy's six-year term.

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Emily Belz

Emily is a former senior reporter for WORLD Magazine. She is a World Journalism Institute graduate and also previously reported for the New York Daily News, The Indianapolis Star, and Philanthropy magazine. Emily resides in New York City.

@emlybelz