Down to the wire

UPDATE: The Associated Press called the state of Wisconsin for Donald Trump, giving the Republican candidate 276 electoral votes and enough to clinch the presidency of the United States.

UPDATE (2:21 a.m.): With a handful of states still not called in the presidential election, Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta told a crowd of supporters in New York City that they would wait until morning to comment on the outcome. With Donald Trump projected to claim at least 266 electoral votes at 2 a.m., the GOP candidate looked poised to win the election, but Clinton’s camp appeared unwilling to yield until the last votes were counted.

UPDATE (1:45 a.m.): Republican Donald Trump grabbed what has been a reliably Democratic state: Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes. It’s an indicator that Trump’s populist message to blue-collar workers has broken through and could help propel him to a win over Democrat Hillary Clinton. Trump continues to pick up the states 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney won, including Georgia, Utah, and Iowa. And he leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona, any of which would put him over the 270 electoral votes needed to defeat Clinton in the most unpredictable election in modern American history.

UPDATE (11/08/16, 11:03 p.m.): In the first true swing states called tonight in the presidential election, Trump is projected to win Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, North Carolina’s 15, and Florida’s 29. The three states were critical victories for the GOP nominee to maintain his most likely path to victory.

Trump likely still needs to hold a slate of states Mitt Romney won in 2012 and pick off a Democratic-leaning state in order to reach 270 electoral votes. One state off the table: Virginia, where Clinton is projected the winner of its 13 electoral votes. Other blue states to watch: Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.

UPDATE (11/08/16, 8:23 p.m.): As more results roll in, the Associated Press has projected that Hillary Clinton would win in Massachusetts (11 electoral votes), New Jersey (14), Delaware (three), Maryland (10), and the District of Columbia (three). Oklahoma (seven), Tennessee (11), South Carolina (nine), and Alabama (nine) were called for Trump.

All eyes remain on Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio—states critical to Trump’s hopes for a win.

UPDATE (11/08/16, 7:49 p.m.): In the first presidential results of the night, Republican Donald Trump is projected to win West Virginia (five electoral votes), Kentucky (eight), and Indiana (11), where running mate Mike Pence is governor. Democrat Hillary Clinton is projected to win Vermont and its three electoral votes. Both candidates were expected to win in these states.

Results are rolling in from Florida, Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina, where the races are too close to call.

OUR EARLIER REPORT (11/08/16, 10:48 a.m.): The magic number to remember as election results roll in tonight: 270. That’s the number of Electoral College votes Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump need to win the presidency.

By early this morning, most pollsters gave Clinton an edge, while admitting the most unpredictable race in modern American history is still … unpredictable.

Let’s start with the projections. Larry Sabato, the longtime political science guru from the University of Virginia, predicts a Clinton victory tonight, with the former secretary of state picking up 322 electoral votes to Trump’s 216. The polling website FiveThirtyEight predicts Clinton will prevail 297-241.

But those are just forecasts. Tonight, we’ll see what the weather actually does.

What should we look for? We’ll follow election results at WNG.ORG throughout the night, but a handful of East Coast swing states could give us an early indictor of the evening’s direction, as Florida holds one of the biggest electoral prizes: 29 votes. As of this morning, the race in the Sunshine State looked neck-and-neck, with Clinton perhaps holding a slight advantage.

In North Carolina, with its 15 electoral votes, the race is razor thin, though Trump may be slightly ahead. Barack Obama won the state in 2008, but Republican Mitt Romney prevailed in 2012. It’s a true toss-up, and it may offer a bellwether about how other states will fall later in the evening.

If Clinton wins North Carolina and Florida, it’s likely an early night. Trump’s path to victory hinges on picking up a slate of swing states, and losing these two to Clinton would make it exceedingly difficult for him to prevail. If Trump wins both of those states, he’s still alive, but he likely needs to sweep most swing states and pick off a Democratic-leaning state to gain enough electoral votes to reach 270.

Still, the clouds could roll in differently than the forecasters predict.

Harry Enten, a senior analyst at Nate Silver’s prediction site FiveThirtyEight, admitted earlier this year that Trump had cracked the site’s prediction models during the Republican primaries. In the fall of last year, the website predicted Trump essentially had no chance to win the GOP nomination.

It was a welcome injection of humility into the frenzied process of predicting any election, particularly one of the most volatile in American history.

Humility was in short supply on the last full day of campaigning, as Trump told a rally in North Carolina on Monday: “To make every dream you’ve ever dreamed for your country and family come true, you have one magnificent chance. There’s never been a movement like this. … It’s not going to happen again.”

We don’t know what will happen tonight or in the future, but in the Old Testament book of Daniel, God reminds the prophet—and the leaders of foreign nations—that He rules the kingdom of men. Daniel—living in exile—confidently declares: “He changes times and seasons; He removes kings and sets up kings. … He knows what is in the darkness, and the light dwells with him.”