Democrats buffeted by November headwinds

WASHINGTON—Lawmakers returned to Washington this week, and despite the many pressing issues facing the nation, no one really expects Congress to address any of them. Instead, all eyes are focused on Nov. 4, when Americans will head to the polls for the midterm elections.

Democrats are sailing into November against serious headwinds: 66 percent of Americans say the country is on the wrong track and a new CNN poll finds 64 percent disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance. Still, nothing is decided, and most experts believe the election could fall either way. Each party’s base seems to be focused, but independents and undecided voters are largely non-committal.

Republicans likely will add slightly to their majority in the U.S. House and pick up seats in the Senate, where Democrats are clinging to a five-seat majority. But whether the GOP gets the six seats it needs to take control remains a tossup. If the Senate flips Republican, it would effectively crush President Obama’s hope of accomplishing his second-term agenda.

Over the next nine weeks, WORLD will count down to Election Day with a weekly political roundup. We’ll included news and notes from House and state races, but the majority of our attention will focus on the battle for the U.S. Senate.

Louisiana

Louisiana is one of several Southern states where Democratic incumbents are trying to hang on to seats in conservative states. On Saturday, a group of pro-life women, including Alveda King, niece of Martin Luther King Jr., and Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List, gathered to call out Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., for being out of touch with her constituents.

“Not only has Sen. Landrieu voted for taxpayer funding of abortion and against conscience rights, she refuses to support a common sense, compassionate limit on abortion after five months when the child can feel excruciating pain,” Dannenfelser said. “Sen. Landrieu has failed to stand up for pro-life Louisiana values and must be defeated.”

Landrieu is a three-term senator set to become chairman of the Senate Energy Committee, but her constituents don’t seem to be impressed: The latest Rasmussen poll shows Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La.—whom WORLD profiled last month—has taken a three-point lead in the race, 44 percent to 41 percent. But that still falls within the margin of error, and neither candidate seems poised to get to 50 percent, which is necessary to avoid a December runoff in Louisiana’s open primary system.

A judge on Friday threw out a lawsuit challenging Landrieu’s residency in the state, but separating herself from Obama may prove more difficult.

Kansas

This election features competitive Senate races all over the map, but Kansas appeared to be the exception—until the last week. Democratic candidate Chad Taylor announced his intention to withdraw from the race, opening the door for independent candidate Greg Orman, who has been both a Democrat and a Republican in previous contests. Orman is widely seen as the much better chance to unseat incumbent GOP Sen. Pat Roberts.

Roberts has been in Washington since 1981 and chaired committees in the House and Senate, but on Saturday he came out swinging like a challenger in the first debate: “Kansas needs somebody in Washington with convictions and a backbone. I don’t think my opponent has either.”

Orman is vying to become the Senate’s third independent (the other two caucus with Democrats) and hasn’t said which party he would caucus with if he wins, but it likely will be whichever one holds the majority.

Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach has ruled Taylor’s reasons for dropping out did not meet legal requirements, so the Democrat’s name will remain on the November ballot. That could complicate Orman’s path to victory. But Republican Gov. Sam Brownback’s difficult battle for reelection could make things tougher for Roberts.

Kentucky

In perhaps the most-watched Senate race, new CNN polling shows Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., holding a four-point lead over challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, while an NBC poll put the lead at eight points. The Kentucky and Georgia races are Democrats’ best chances to take a Republican seat. If they succeed in either one, it would make a GOP takeover much more difficult.

Arkansas

The NBC poll also found Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark.—whom WORLD profiled last month—has taken a five-point lead against incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor. Last month Pryor became the first candidate to invoke Africa's Ebola outbreak in a campaign ad. Doesn’t look like Arkansans liked it.

Alaska

Democratic Sen. Mark Begich was in a decent position to hold on to his seat until he ran a controversial ad trying to tie his opponent, former Attorney General Dan Sullivan, to a grisly double-murder and sexual assault. Begich eventually removed the ad, which Politifact rated “pants on fire,” but the damage appears to be done. Most polls already showed Sullivan with a slight lead, and that likely will grow as the ad controversy continues to consume the campaign.

North Carolina

A CBS/New York Times poll released Sunday found the Senate race in North Carolina still a statistical dead heat. Republican challenger Thom Tillis had a slight one-point lead, 43 percent to 42 percent, over incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan—well within the survey’s three-point margin of error.

Tillis accused Hagan of aligning herself with liberal Senate Democrats and failing North Carolina, when the two squared off last week in their first debate. Hagan attacked Tillis, speaker of the North Carolina House, for his education record. With pro-life and pro-abortion advocates rallying outside, Tillis reiterated his support for the Supreme Court’s Hobby Lobby decision, and Hagan said he doesn't understand the needs of women.

Oregon

GOP Senate candidate Monica Wehby has come out in favor of gay marriage in an ad that’s raising eyebrows among the state’s conservative minority. The ad, created by GOP firm FP1 Strategies, features the plaintiff in the lawsuit that struck down the state’s same-sex marriage ban. The blatant bid for Democratic votes includes photos and video clips from Ben West’s marriage to Paul Rummell.