Crowded field could push Georgia race to a runoff

Republicans have controlled the northern suburbs of Atlanta since 1979. To retain Georgia’s 6th congressional district they don’t need to win Tuesday’s special election, they just need to keep a well-funded, 30-year-old Democrat from getting 50 percent of the vote.

Georgia has a survival-of-the-fittest primary to replace the vacant seat of former Rep. Tom Price, who now runs the Department of Health and Human Services. Price easily won reelection in November by more than 20 points, but his successor likely won’t enjoy such broad support. Eleven Republicans are on the ballot, diluting voters and campaign resources, while Democrats have gone all-in for Jon Ossoff. Thanks to wealthy out-of-state donors, the young, previously unknown former congressional staffer has more funding than all of his Republican opponents combined, allowing him to soar to the top of most polls.

In one of the first elections since the Trump administration moved into the White House, Democrats are hoping to send a message to the rest of the country. Some polls forecast Ossoff winning 45 percent of the vote Tuesday in the historically Republican district. If he captures at least 50 percent, he can win the congressional seat outright, but if no candidate gets a majority, the top two finishers will participate in a June 20 runoff election—an outcome the GOP is banking on.

The large sums of outside money have turned a relatively small, local election into a national spectacle. Ossoff raised more than $8.3 million in the first three months of 2017, allowing him to blanket airwaves with television ads and hire dozens of campaign workers. With all special elections, especially in odd years, getting voters to show up to the polls is the top priority.

Ossoff’s vast resources allowed him to staff four field offices. His team has knocked on more than 100,000 doors and made an equal number of phone calls to get voters to the polls Tuesday. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also deployed nine staffers from Washington, D.C., to support the campaign. And Democrats even put together radio ads in Atlanta featuring actor Samuel L. Jackson.

Republicans criticize Ossoff for his youth and inexperience but also note 97 percent of his funds came from donors outside the district.

“It’s all from outside the district but it’s still $8 million,” Justin Tomczak, a Georgia GOP grassroots activist, told me. “It doesn’t matter if it all came from Mars, that can buy you a lot of TV ads.”

Just one day away from the primary, President Donald Trump is weighing in on the election as well.

“The super liberal Democrat in the Georgia [congressional] race tomorrow wants to protect criminals, allow illegal immigration and raise taxes!” he tweeted Monday morning.

Of the 11 Republicans running, only four have a realistic shot of finishing in the top two and forcing a June runoff. Each has taken a different approach to get there.

“I am just focused on being the top Republican,” Karen Handel, who polls at the top of the Republican field, told me.

Handel can’t match Ossoff’s resources and has fewer prominent endorsements than some of her Republican opponents but benefits from name recognition. She served on the Fulton County Board of Commissioners and then as Georgia’s Secretary of State for three years. Handel previously ran unsuccessfully for governor and for a U.S. Senate seat.

But unlike some of her opponents, Handel lives in the district and voters know where she stands on important issues.

In 2012, she made headlines for helping Susan G. Komen for the Cure Foundation, where she worked at the time, stop making grants to Planned Parenthood. Handel then resigned from the organization after it folded under political pressure and reinstated the Planned Parenthood funds.

“Who do the people of the 6th district trust to represent them? That’s what this race is all about,” Handel told me. “Time and time again the people of this district have witnessed my willingness to get the job done and to stand up and fight when it’s needed.”

Handel sits at around 17 percent in most polls and said if she can force a runoff election she expects to defeat Ossoff in June.

The next three Republicans in the race poll around 8 percent each.

Bob Gray, a Johns Creek City Council member, has focused on associating himself with Trump. He labels himself as a political outsider who can “drain the swamp” in Washington. He also has some prominent endorsements from Tea Party groups like the Club for Growth.

Dan Moody, a former Georgia state senator, has an endorsement from Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga. He has also put in about $2 million of his own money to fund his campaign.

Both Moody and Gray have attacked Handel with ads and surrogates.

“To me that says they see Handel as being between them and the runoff,” Tomczak said. “She is attracting all their heavy fire.”

Judson Hill, also a former Georgia state Senator, has benefited from high-profile endorsements from Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the U.S. House who served the 6th district for 20 years, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. Hill also has the full support of Georgia Right to Life.