CBO: 14 million fewer insured under GOP healthcare bill

WASHINGTON—Millions of Americans will end up without health insurance by 2018 under the new GOP-endorsed Obamacare replacement plan, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The CBO report, released today, comes one week after House Republicans unveiled their proposed replacement for the Affordable Care Act. If the American Health Care Act (AHCA) becomes law, 14 million fewer Americans will have health insurance next year, compared to current rates, the report estimates. Primarily due to proposed changes in Medicaid, the CBO also predicts 52 million Americans will not have insurance by 2026, compared to 28 million if Obamacare remained in place.

Bleak projections from analysts at the nonpartisan CBO don’t help AHCA proponents, but the bill’s supporters preemptively noted other projections have been far from accurate, particularly when it comes to healthcare legislation.

Contained within the report is a caveat for the CBO’s estimates: “The ways in which federal agencies, states, insurers, employers, individuals, doctors, hospitals, and other affected parties would respond to the changes made by the legislation are all difficult to predict, so the estimates in this report are uncertain.”

White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer told reporters last week anyone looking to the CBO for accuracy is looking in the wrong place. He reiterated that Monday.

Anticipating the report’s release, Spicer noted the CBO originally predicted 21 million Americans would sign up for Obamacare exchanges but then downgraded the estimate to 10 million.

“As far as their numbers go and the number of people they predicted back then they were off by more than half," Spicer said. He added that CBO scoring always needs context, and no lawmakers should base their vote solely on those estimates.

On Sunday, as many anticipated the CBO report, White House budget director Mick Mulvaney argued on ABC’s This Week that the CBO shouldn’t even try to scrutinize the AHCA.

“Sometimes we ask them to do stuff they’re not capable of doing, and estimating the impact of a bill of this size probably isn’t the best use of their time,” Mulvaney said.

After reviewing the CBO report, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., also downplayed the CBO’s projections.

The projected decrease in the insured rate highlights an important distinction between the Republican plan and the Affordable Care Act, he explained.

“Unlike Obamacare, our plan does not force people to buy insurance plans they may not want or even need,” McCarthy said. “The fundamental premise of the American Health Care Act is that people should be free and able to buy quality healthcare that suits their needs.”

While most of the report paints an unfavorable forecast for the future of the AHCA, there are several positive signs for Republicans.

The report estimates the bill would reduce the federal deficit by $337 billion over the next decade by eliminating Medicaid expansion under Obamacare and getting rid of many of the law’s federal subsidies.

If the AHCA becomes law, the CBO also predicts healthcare premiums will drop after 2020. In the first few years, the elimination of Obamacare’s individual mandate will cause premiums to rise 15-20 percent next year and in 2019. But provisions in the GOP plan will cause the average premium rate to cost 10 percent less in 2026 than today’s prices.