Bush rises, Rubio pads lead in WORLD survey

WASHINGTON—Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush picked up 13 percentage points in combined first- and second-choice support in WORLD’s evangelical insiders survey for February, as Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., added to his lead for the second straight month.

The findings are part of a monthly survey of 103 evangelical leaders and influencers, 86 of whom participated in February. The results are not scientific or representative of all evangelicals but provide a snapshot of how some influential evangelicals are leaning in the 2016 presidential race.

Rubio’s first-choice support remained static at 49 percent, but he gained 3 percentage points in second-choice support for a combined 76 percent—the highest of any candidate so far in the survey. Both Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas—who continued to run second with a combined 52 percent—have roughly doubled their overall support since the first survey last July, but they didn’t significantly benefit from the winnowing field of candidates.

Seven presidential hopefuls (six Republicans and one Democrat) have dropped out of the race since WORLD’s January survey, opening up seven first-choice votes and 15 second-choice votes. The biggest beneficiaries: Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, the only remaining governors in a field that once included New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former New York Gov. George Pataki, and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore for the Republicans and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley for the Democrats.

“A lot of folks wanted a governor,” said survey participant Oran Smith, president of the Palmetto Family Council, a leading pro-family group in South Carolina.

Bush, who continues to lag far behind in national polls, finished a distant third in WORLD’s survey with 9 percent of first-choice votes but received nearly one-quarter of the second-choice votes—nearly matching Cruz and Rubio—to tally 34 percent combined support. Kasich, who finished a strong second behind Donald Trump in last week’s New Hampshire Republican primary, captured 15 percent in combined votes, up from 6 percent in January.

Bush’s rise and Rubio’s continued dominance in the WORLD survey is mildly surprising since social conservatives, including numerous survey participants, recently leveled sharp criticism toward them (along with Christie) for saying women should be included in a potential military draft. The survey results suggest many evangelical leaders may not consider it a top-tier issue in determining their allegiance to a candidate.

In a new survey question, 71 percent of respondents said they do not support drafting women into the military for any purpose. Almost 26 percent would back drafting women for non-combat positions.

“I am not surprised by these percentages,” said survey participant David Dockery, president of Trinity Evangelical Divinity School. “I think that these numbers reflect continuity with the church’s historic understanding of these matters.”

More than half of the participants had already completed the survey when Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died Saturday, but Supreme Court nominations still surged from fourth place in January to second this month as a leading election concern. More than 52 percent cited it as a top three issue, trailing domestic religious liberty at 67 percent and ahead of last month’s No. 2 and No. 3 issues, abortion at 49 percent and national security/terrorism at 24 percent.

“Respondents recognize the next president will likely have more than one opportunity to nominate a new justice for the Supreme Court,” Dockery said. “The death of Justice Scalia has brought that issue front and center for all to see.”

As vicious campaign attacks continue to increase ahead of Saturday’s GOP primary in South Carolina, overall election enthusiasm dropped for the third straight month. Trump, who leads most national polls, took the hardest hit: The number of survey participants who said they “absolutely” would not vote for the billionaire businessman spiked 17 percentage points to almost 76 percent. He finished with 8 percent in combined support this month, down from 11 percent last month.

Smith of the Palmetto Family Council said Trump’s South Carolina backing has dropped some since the last GOP debate but predicted he will win a plurality of votes in Saturday’s primary, “thanks to those who have shed their discernment for fear and anger and cult of personality.”

Survey participant Alex McFarland, an author, speaker, and radio host, believes many evangelical elites are out of touch. McFarland said many Americans like the idea of a citizen executive, and he has encountered scores of Christians who support Trump as he does.

“I’m as excited about Donald Trump as I was about the arrival of Ronald Reagan,” he said. “There’s every reason for Donald Trump not to have momentum, but he’s probably going to be our next president, so why don’t we pray for him?”

WORLD’s survey of evangelical leaders and insiders

1. If the presidential election were today, which declared candidate do you prefer?

Marco Rubio, 48.8%, 42 Ted Cruz, 26.7%, 23 Jeb Bush, 9.3%, 8 John Kasich, 8.1%, 7 Donald Trump, 4.7%, 4 Hillary Clinton, 1.2%, 1 Undecided, 1.2%, 1 Ben Carson, 0.0%, 0 Bernie Sanders, 0.0%, 0

Answered: 86 Skipped: 0

2. On a scale of 1-to-5, how excited are you about this candidate?

1-Disappointed, 2.3%, 2 2-Lukewarm, 4.7%, 4 3-Satisfied, 14.0%, 12 4-Happy, 62.8%, 54 5-Elated, 16.3%, 14 Average response: 3.9

Answered: 86 Skipped: 0

3. Who is your second choice?

Marco Rubio, 26.7%, 23 Ted Cruz, 25.6%, 22 Jeb Bush, 24.4%, 21 John Kasich, 7.0%, 6 Undecided, 7.0%, 6 Ben Carson, 5.8%, 5 Donald Trump, 3.5%, 3 Hillary Clinton, 0.0%, 0 Bernie Sanders, 0.0%, 0

Answered: 86 Skipped: 0

4. According to a RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio have separated themselves from the rest of the GOP field. Which of these candidates do you prefer?

Marco Rubio, 67.4%, 58 Ted Cruz, 27.9%, 24 Donald Trump, 4.7%, 4

Answered: 86 Skipped: 0

5. Who will you absolutely not vote for in the primaries? (Check as many as apply.)

Bernie Sanders, 93.0%, 80 Hillary Clinton, 88.4%, 76 Donald Trump, 75.6%, 65 John Kasich, 43.0%, 37 Ben Carson, 36.1%, 31 Jeb Bush, 20.9%, 18 Ted Cruz, 18.6%, 16 Marco Rubio, 7.0%, 6

Answered: 86 Skipped: 0

6. What are the top three issues you will consider when selecting a candidate? (Please check only three.)

Religious freedom (domestic), 67.4%, 58 Supreme Court nominations, 52.3%, 45 Abortion, 48.8%, 42 National security/terrorism, 24.4%, 21 Economy/jobs, 22.1%, 19 Marriage and family issues, 22.1%, 19 Foreign policy, 20.9%, 18 Federal debt/deficit, 14.0%, 12 Immigration, 9.3%, 8 Religious freedom (international), 8.1%, 7 Education, 3.5%, 3 Race relations, 3.5%, 3 Environment/pollution, 2.3%, 2 Healthcare/Affordable Care Act, 2.3%, 2 Poverty, 2.3%, 2 Crime, 1.2%, 1 Taxes, 1.2%, 1

Answered: 86 Skipped: 0

7. Should young women be required to register with Selective Service in case the draft is reinstituted?

Men should be drafted if necessary, but women should not be, 61.6%, 53 Women should register, but they should only be drafted into non-combat positions, 25.6%, 22 Neither men nor women should ever be drafted, 9.3%, 8 Men and women should be treated exactly the same—perhaps being drafted into combat positions, 3.5%, 3

Answered: 86Skipped: 0