Will Trump’s Cabinet picks leave the House GOP short on votes?

President-elect Donald Trump has plucked several key appointees for his administration out of an already threadbare Republican majority in the House. If all of the nominated lawmakers immediately left Congress at the beginning of the next session in January, Republicans could temporarily lose their majority. The musical chairs between Congerss and the White House could affect the GOP’s ability to pass bills during Trump’s first 100 days in office and force Republicans to delay some Cabinet confirmations.

So far, Trump has tapped three House Republicans: Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida for national security adviser, and Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida as attorney general.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., celebrated those picks. But it was clear he was carefully keeping score.

“We have a really talented Republican conference. Many of them could serve in really important positions in the new administration,” Johnson said at a news conference last week. “President Trump fully understands and appreciates the math here, and it’s just a numbers game. I don’t expect that we will have more members leaving, but I’ll leave that up to him,” Johnson said.

Republicans don’t anticipate that the appointments will endanger their fragile House majority in the long run, but it might shrink the margin for error as they take control of Washington in January. Leaders in both branches of government might consider staggering appointments to avoid a lapse in numbers.

“They will stagger it if they have to. Trump is smart enough to know if it threatens [a majority] we can’t do that,” said Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., who sits on the powerful House Rules Committee. “Trump leads that charge.”

But appointees have never threatened a majority before—at least not like this. The Republican majority in the current, 118th Congress was already the smallest in U.S. history. The 119th’s might be smaller still.

Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, also a member of the Rules Committee, expressed some nervousness about the thin margins.

“That’s Speaker Johnson’s purview.” Roy said when I asked him about the nomination timeline. “I know he’s had some conversations with the president. In all seriousness, you’re going to have to figure out something on the timing. If you stagger them, you can let that play out a little bit.”

As of Monday afternoon, Republicans in the House had won 218 seats—the bare minimum for control of the chamber. Five races remained too close to call. If Democrats won all five remaining seats, Johnson and Republicans could be staring down a one-seat majority. How Republicans decide to handle the three cabinet appointments could make or break their legislative agenda if their margins end up being that tight.

Johnson is well aware that it only takes one unplanned setback to bring the House to a halt.

“Every single vote can count, because if someone gets ill or has a car accident or a late flight on their plane, then it affects the votes on the floor,” Johnson said.

In the 118th Congress, three members died in office. Four resigned halfway through their terms, and one was expelled.

The time it takes for Republicans to refill empty seats depends on the states they represent. In the case of Waltz and Gaetz, who are both from Florida, state law leaves it up to the governor. Gov. Ron DeSantis has hinted he may set a date for a special election—at least for Gaetz’s seat—sooner than later but has not announced when that might be. Gaetz resigned the same day he was nominated on Wednesday last week. Special elections in Florida include a primary.

Once Stefanik officially resigns from the House, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has 10 days to set a date for a special election to occur between 70 and 80 days later. In New York, there is no primary for a special election. Party state chairs will pick their nominees.

I asked Rep. Pete Agular, D-Calif., the No. 3 Democrat in the House, if the slim margins next year open a unique window of opportunity for Democrats. Could they leverage their position to help Johnson pass legislation if he can’t unify Republicans in January?

“We will reach a hand of bipartisanship wherever and whenever we can. That’s going to continue in the new Congress no matter the majority” Aguilar said. “We look forward to working as a team to help our communities and guide our caucus.”

Aguilar pointed out that Democrats helped Republicans pass several pieces of legislation in the past two years when the GOP couldn’t muster the votes. But that came the cost of significantly less conservative legislation than many Republicans would have liked.

I asked Norman of the Rules Committee if he was worried about losing the majority even just temporarily.

“They will never let it get to that point,” Norman said.