WASHINGTON—Republicans are heading for a tipping point in healthcare negotiations and pro-life groups hope lawmakers don’t abandon safeguards for unborn children amid the legislative brawl.

House Republicans passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) on May 4—you may have seen the photos of beaming lawmakers celebrating with President Donald Trump on the White House lawn. But that was just the first, and frankly, the easiest step in a long process to fulfill the GOP promise of repealing and replacing Obamacare.

Top House negotiators worked for weeks to ease concerns within the Republican conference and whip just enough votes to get over the finish line. But most Senate Republicans didn’t like the end product and plan to write their own legislation. Staffers are hard at work drafting legislation to give their bosses something to work with when they return to Washington on Monday. Sometime over the next few weeks, Republican and Democratic lawyers will convene with Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, to ensure each provision of the legislation they bring forward falls under the arcane rules of the budget reconciliation process.

Fortunately for pro-lifers, the Senate has precedent to defund Planned Parenthood within healthcare legislation.

“It’s hard for me to imagine the Senate coming up with a bill that isn’t pro-life,” Tom McClusky, vice president of government affairs for March for Life Action, told me. “If they were to pass healthcare legislation that funded abortion, that would be such a step in the wrong direction, and it would be the Republican Party making it. I don’t see how pro-lifers or the Republican Party rebounds.”

Because Republicans are using the budget reconciliation process to avoid a Democratic filibuster, they can only advance legislation that has a direct budgetary impact for each of its provisions. That’s easy when dealing with taxes and federal expenditures, but some provisions included in the AHCA—such as state waivers to opt out of certain regulations—don’t have a clear budgetary impact.

Republicans already went through this process about 18 months ago. Using the same budget reconciliation process, the GOP passed legislation in January 2016 to repeal large parts of Obamacare, which included defunding Planned Parenthood. President Barack Obama promptly vetoed the legislation, but the bill cleared MacDonough’s review.

McClusky told me precedent weighs heavily on the parliamentarian, and since she approved the defunding measure before, it should pass muster this time as well.

But questions remain. MacDonough has not reviewed other pro-life provisions wrapped into healthcare, such as banning refundable individual tax credits that pay for abortions. Democrats will challenge that provision, claiming it violates reconciliation rules.

Senators will have the opportunity to restructure the bill to clear protocol if they run into roadblocks. But that could add more time to what most already expect to be a long process.

Michael Cannon, the Cato Institute’s director of health policy studies, told me even if Congress immediately agreed on healthcare legislation, it’s still unlikely we’ll have a new healthcare law this summer. It’s possible Republicans could extend negotiations until 2018, he said.

Cannon told me the best strategy for the GOP may be to do nothing and let Obama’s health law implode.

“The longer they go without doing anything the more the actions of insurance companies will reflect the cost and uncertainty that Obamacare imposes, and the more it will focus Congress’ attention on the real problems,” Cannon said. “So it may be that things have to get worse before they get better—but things can get better.”

Survey says …

Americans don’t like the healthcare legislation they’ve seen thus far. According to a new Kaiser health tracking poll released Wednesday, only 8 percent of Americans think the Senate should pass the AHCA as-is. A mere 4 percent of the 1,205 responders said the AHCA would fulfill all Trump’s healthcare promises. With that said, it’s no surprise Americans’ view of the AHCA falls in line with their political identity. Republicans had a favorable view of the AHCA 67 percent of the time, compared to 30 percent of independents and 8 percent of Democrats. Altogether, nearly half of those surveyed said they have a favorable view of Obamacare, compared to just 31 percent for the GOP bill. But three-fourths of the public don’t expect Obamacare to last much longer. They think it’s likely Congress will pass a new healthcare package and Trump will sign it into law. —E.W.

Show me the money

Regardless of who wins Georgia’s 6th congressional district runoff election on June 20, one thing is sure: It will be the most expensive House race in U.S. history. With less than three weeks to go, Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel have collectively run up a tab of more than $36 million. The two candidates and outside groups supporting them are on pace to spend more than $30 million on television ads alone. To put that into perspective, President Donald Trump’s campaign only spent $75 million on TV ads during his 2016 election run.

Tom Price vacated the seat Feb. 10 when the Senate confirmed him to head the Department of Health and Human Services. Georgia’s 6th district has been a safe Republican stronghold since the 1970s, but Democrats have targeted the seat, in part, to protest Trump. Ossoff, a 30-year-old, first-time candidate, has benefitted from generous donors and endorsements from Reps. John Lewis, D-Ga., and Hank Johnson, D-Ga., and former Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes. Handel emerged as the top contender from a crowded Republican field in the April primary. In a normal election, Handel would be heavily favored to win, but it’s harder to get voters to the polls during special elections—hence the big advertising budgets. Early voting started Tuesday. —E.W.

The big hunt

Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Md., the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, doesn’t think our nation’s top intelligence officials are forthcoming enough regarding Russia. Last week, The Washington Post reported President Donald Trump pressured Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers to deny the existence of collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. A congressional panel asked Coats to confirm that report, but he declined to say one way or another. That non-answer didn’t cut it for Cummings. On Tuesday, he sent separate letters to Coats and Rogers requesting all documents, recordings, memos, and notes related to their conversations with the president or his staff about Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election. Just days earlier, House Oversight chairman Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, requested more information from the FBI to confirm a different Washington Post report. The FBI initially declined Chaffetz’s request, saying it needed to consult with Robert Mueller, the new special counsel overseeing the FBI’s Russia probe. Cummings gave Coats and Rogers until Friday to respond. Chaffetz said the FBI should consult with Mueller and get back to him by no later than June 8. —E.W.

Waiting for a home

A group of 122 lawmakers delivered a letter to Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn this week, urging him to reconsider his April 21 order suspending international adoptions. Since Desalegn’s order took effect, more than 200 U.S. families attempting to adopt Ethiopian children have been stuck in indefinite limbo. About 30 families had already finalized their adoptions, but because of the order, they can’t obtain the final paperwork necessary to bring their legally adopted children home. Leaders of the Senate’s Adoption Caucus, as well as Reps. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., and Brenda Lawrence, D-Mich., led the effort to draft the letter, collect signatures, and deliver it to Desalegn. “In many cases, children and families have already initiated the emotional bonding and attachment process,” the letter reads. “We fear breaking these attachments by delaying these adoptions may be detrimental to the children and families involved.” —E.W.

Aid for genocide victims

In March 2016, then-Secretary of State John Kerry made the historic declaration of genocide against religious minorities in Iraq and Syria. About 90 percent of Christians have left the region over the last decade because of Islamic State and other terror groups. Activists say without immediate aid, the Christian population in Iraq and Syria could soon dwindle to zero. The Knights of Columbus launched a new nationwide digital and TV ad campaign Wednesday to raise awareness and funds on behalf of Christians facing genocide in the Middle East. In early May, Congress allocated about $1.3 billion for refugee assistance and included specific language to try to ensure at least some of the money goes to assist genocide victims. But only $10 million is specifically earmarked for Christians, Yazidis, and other religious minorities. The Knights of Columbus wants the Trump administration to earmark more funds for genocide victims and to do it quickly. Officials only have until the end of September, when the federal funding bill runs out, to allocate the funds—unless Congress approves new legislation. —E.W.