Will Kennedy’s retirement swing the midterms?

Conservatives could barely catch their breath after news of Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy’s retirement broke on Wednesday. Kennedy announced he would step down on July 31 after serving 30 years on the nation’s highest court. The retirement of Kennedy, who was often the ideological swing vote in major Supreme Court rulings, makes way for President Donald Trump to appoint a more reliably conservative justice in his place.

“This is why 81 percent of evangelical women voted for President Trump,” said Penny Nance, president of Concerned Women for America.

“Blue wave will turn to a red wave,” said conservative activist and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk on Twitter, predicting that an open Supreme Court seat would send Republicans running to the polls in November.

But two political experts told me the midterms are still up for grabs.

“I think it gets base voters excited and reminds them why they voted for Trump,” said Sean Trende, an elections analyst for RealClearPolitics. “But I don’t think it’s a game changer, either.”

Trende wrote earlier this month that in the generic poll Democrats fell from a lead of around 18 points at Christmas to a mere 3 points in June. They would need a lead of 4 or 5 points to retake the House.

Kristin Garrett, a political science professor at Wheaton College who specializes in partisanship and the American electorate, said there are arguments for both a vibrant blue wave and a vibrant red one.

The argument in favor of Democrats is that they have claimed victory this year in special elections where Trump performed well two years ago. Plus, the optics of the family separation issue seem to work in their favor.

Still, support for Trump has persisted, floating above 40 percent even after the controversy at the border. (His approval rate among Republicans: 87 percent.) And now a swing-vote Supreme Court justice is retiring: Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has already promised a vote on Kennedy’s replacement this fall.

“When you have someone retire right before an election, that really makes the court salient on voters’ minds,” Garrett said. But both parties, she noted, could use a newly filled Supreme Court seat to drive turnout using the same argument: Elections matter because they have long-lasting implications for the court.

A call to civility

This week the furor over how migrant children are treated at the U.S. southern border devolved into spats over how adults more than 1,700 miles away are treated while dining out—that’s the distance from Tornillo, Texas, to Lexington, Va., where White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders was asked to leave The Red Hen restaurant last Friday night because of her role in the Trump administration.

“You tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere,” Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., told supporters at a rally the next day, instructing them what to do when they spot a Trump official in public.

Some commentators drew comparisons between the treatment of Sanders (and other administration officials) while dining out to the treatment of African-Americans in the same state prior to the civil rights movement.

Others wondered why, if a baker has a civil right to refuse to make a cake for a same-sex wedding, must a restaurant owner serve chicken to Sanders? The answer, according to Time magazine and others: Nothing compels them to. Political ideology is not a protected class, like race, gender, ethnicity, or religion.

Both House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., denounced Waters’ rally comments, and House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., called on her to apologize.

But Republicans need to clean their own house first when it comes to civility, according to O. Alan Noble, editor in chief of Christ and Pop Culture and a professor at Oklahoma Baptist University.

“We can’t talk about civility and public discourse while one of the two major parties is, for the most part, excusing the greatest source of incivility in our nation, which is our president,” Noble told me, pointing out that Trump had just insulted Waters’ IQ on Twitter.

Noble said it may be helpful to remember that the Trump administration will end, but God’s Word will not. Nor will our membership in His kingdom.

“Everybody needs to start with their own house,” he added. “Judgment starts with the house of the Lord, and there are theological implications for that, but it’s a good way to think about institutions and tribes and parties.” —L.F.

Tariff wars

Motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson on Monday said it plans to move some of its plants to foreign sites. The company blamed the change on new European Union tariffs levied against $3.4 billion of U.S. products, claiming the additional duties have added $2,200 on average to the cost of each exported motorcycle.

When President Donald Trump launched new aluminum and steel tariffs on the EU and Canada earlier this month, he lauded the positive effect they would have on American business. It appears he thinks Harley-Davidson gave up too quickly. “Surprised that Harley-Davidson, of all companies, would be the first to wave the White Flag. …Taxes just a Harley excuse—be patient!” the president tweeted after the announcement.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican, and other politicians met at the Department of Commerce last week to discuss the effects of the escalating trade battle. Walker said he’d like to eliminate all tariffs on both sides of the Atlantic, echoing Trump’s calls for completely free trade at the end of the G-7 summit.

“That's what I’m going to push for,” Walker said. “If we can get to a level playing field, then we don’t have this tit for tat on any number of products out there.”

The Harley-Davidson decision should come as no surprise. Earlier this month, The New York Times reported the White House Council of Economic Advisers warned the president his tariff plan would hurt economic growth in the United States.

But Trump’s goal, it seems, is to make Europe retract its tariffs first in an economic game of chicken. This could explain his claim that Harley-Davidson “waved the white flag.” It’s possible the EU will cave first and usher in free trade, but how many more businesses will lose their patience in the meantime? —Kyle Ziemnick

Far from a neighborly quarrel

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., filed a lawsuit last Friday against a neighbor who tackled him while he was mowing his lawn last fall. Paul sued in Warren County Circuit Court in Bowling Green, Ky., a week after Rene A. Boucher, 60, a retired anesthesiologist, pleaded guilty to a federal felony charge of assaulting a member of Congress and was sentenced to 30 days in prison. The November attack, reportedly prompted by a brush pile dispute, resulted in several broken ribs and a recurrent case of pneumonia for Paul, according to the senator’s spokesman.

The suit asked for an undisclosed amount of money to compensate for “physical pain and mental suffering,” claiming Paul has “been deprived of his enjoyment of life” and was left with an increased likelihood of injury and disease. Matt Baker, an attorney for Boucher, said Paul has not suffered any loss of income and has acknowledged he had no out-of-pocket medical expenses and did not take any prescription pain medication. “We’re going to defend this civil suit just like we would any other and see if we can get it resolved as efficiently as possible,” Baker said. —Kiley Crossland